YEREVAN, Armenia (AP) — Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan early Monday claimed victory in a general election seen as a test of Russia's influence in the South Caucasus state, as the latest preliminary results showed his governing Civil Contract party came first with 49.82% of the vote.
Pashinyan and the governing Civil Contract party were looking for a strong mandate for a new geopolitical course for Armenia, including distancing the former Soviet republic from Moscow, seeking to join the European Union and deepening cooperation with the West.
Casting his vote on Sunday, Pashinyan said that the country would continue strengthening its independence, statehood, democracy and rule of law.
“The European Union is our main partner in democratic reform implementation, and we will continue that path,” he said.
Pashinyan’s main opponent, Samvel Karapetyan, is a billionaire who made his fortune in Russia and is under house arrest for allegedly advocating for the government’s overthrow. Karapetyan, whose pro-Russian Strong Armenia bloc was the runner-up with 23.28% of the vote, has rejected the charge as politically motivated.
The Strong Armenia party seeks to develop close business ties with Moscow and has accused Pashinyan of attempting to start a war with the Kremlin.
While the Central Election Commission says it has counted ballots from all electoral precincts, full official results are only expected on Sunday. This is to give political parties time to lodge complaints about any perceived electoral irregularities.
‘Referendum on the future of the country'
Richard Giragosian, who heads the independent Regional Studies Center think tank in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, described the vote as a “pivotal election” that “stands as a referendum on the future of the country.”
“This election provides a fresh mandate on sustaining the positive momentum of diplomatic engagement, normalization of relations with neighbors, and the continued diversification of Armenia’s security partners,” Giragosian told the AP on Monday.
Russian officials have hit Armenian exports with a barrage of restrictions in recent weeks. President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have made thinly veiled threats comparing Armenia’s path to that already taken by Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia.
Meanwhile, Armenian investigators said they issued six arrest warrants for members of Karapetyan's Strong Armenia party the day before the election, accusing them of buying votes. The nation’s Central Election Committee confirmed Saturday that the party could run after a member of another opposition party, Republic, appealed for Strong Armenia to be barred over corruption allegations.
Armenia’s National Assembly must consist of at least 101 members who are elected for five-year terms. Parties must win at least 4% of the vote to take a seat, while blocs made up of three or more parties must hit 8%.
Pashinyan's party set to rule on its own
According to Armenia’s Central Election Commission, the Hayastan (Armenia) bloc led by former President Robert Kocharyan is also set to enter parliament, receiving 9.93% of the vote.
The Prosperous or Blossoming Armenia party, led by pro-Russia business owner Gagik Tsarukyan, polled at 3.99% according to the latest preliminary results, just short of the 4% threshold. Earlier preliminary results had given Prosperous Armenia the requisite 4% of the vote.
Turnout stood at 58.94%, according to the latest announcement by the election commission.
Preliminary results from the election commission suggested the governing party has won 61 seats in the National Assembly, or 58.1% of all mandates.
“This is enough to form a government without coalition partners, elect a prime minister, adopt the government program and state budget, as well as adopt most of the laws and parliamentary decisions independently,” said Giragosian, the analyst.
At the same time, he added, the result would not give Pashinyan the parliamentary majority needed to secure constitutional amendments without a referendum.
PM vows to continue peace process with neighboring Azerbaijan
Opposition parties have also strongly criticized Pashinyan for attempting to normalize relations with neighboring Azerbaijan. The Armenian leader and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev initialed a document on moving toward a peace deal at the White House alongside U.S. President Donald Trump in August.
Armenia and Azerbaijan were locked in a decades-long conflict over the fate of Karabakh, a breakaway region that had been controlled for decades by ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia. Azerbaijan took control of the entire Karabakh region during a rapid offensive in 2023.
Pashinyan announced on Monday that Armenia intends to write the peace deal with Azerbaijan into law in the near future.
“It is important to confirm that this is a truly transformative project, as Armenia is becoming a crossroads of the world,” Pashinyan said at a meeting of a parliamentary committee on state and legal affairs. His remark was a potential reference to the country's strategic geographical position, bridging Europe's hungry energy markets and Central Asia's gas fields.
EU leaders congratulate Pashinyan on winning
Top EU officials congratulated Pashinyan following the tightly contested race, seen in Europe as a litmus test of Russia’s influence.
“The spirit of the Velvet Revolution you led in 2018 is alive and well,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday in a social media post, referring to the mass protests sparked by Pashinyan's activism that unseated Armenia's former Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan.
“We deeply value our partnership with a democratic Armenia that is drawing ever closer to Europe. Armenia can count on us," von der Leyen added.
European Council President António Costa also congratulated Pashinyan.
“Together, the EU and Armenia are building stronger links between people and creating new opportunities in energy, trade, and digitalization. Our strong partnership is an investment in a more peaceful and prosperous future for the region as a whole," he said in a post on X.
Asked about the outcome of Armenia’s election, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refrained from comments pending the release of full official results.
He told reporters that “we carefully note all the reports concerning the elections, including the reports about numerous violations that took place during the elections.”
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AP writer Sam McNeil contributed from Brussels.
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An earlier version of this story wrongly stated that according to an earlier announcement by Armenia's election commission, turnout in the general election on Sunday stood at 97%. The correct figure at that time was 59.97%.
