In regular-season NFL totals betting from 2004-18, primetime unders weren’t a reliable bet. There were times of futility, but the period was largely marked by inconsistency, delivering a negative return on investment in 11 of the 15 seasons.
Since 2019, they’ve been a dominant bet.
In primetime games the last five seasons, unders have a winning percentage of .599 and ROI of 15%. If, for example, you wagered $100 on each of the 270 games, you’d be up more than $4,000.
2023-24: 15.4%
2022-23: 25.2%
2021-22: 3.8%
2020-21: 9%
2019-20: 22.3%
The New York Jets haven’t contributed to its success. In 12 games, the under is just 6-6 with an ROI of -4.8%. Only six teams have a worse ROI over that time.
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the total for Monday’s game against the San Francisco 49ers is 42.5 (down from 45.5 at open). Primetime games with a total at or below 43 went under in 55.7% of games the last five seasons. Games over 43 went under 61.4% of the time.
Currently, 76% of the bets are on the under, which account for 85% of the handle.
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