I almost became a part of the closing scene of episode seven of “The Boys” yesterday. Don’t get the reference? Sorry. I’ll be clearer. My head almost exploded as I read Marc Berman’s article in the New York Post about the Knicks potentially going after Chris Paul and adding Carmelo Anthony.
I understand the draw. Knicks fans are tired of losing.
Chris Paul would stop the losing. Carmelo Anthony would rekindle the great memories of… one playoff series victory? They would also represent a short-term fix with little or no long-term benefit towards reaching the ultimate goal of perennial playoff contention. In fact, their additions would actually hinder the team from reaching that goal.
Chris Paul is still the Point God. He is a great player and would immediately elevate the Knicks close to playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. He is that good. Carmelo Anthony finally decided to get into elite basketball shape, try a little bit on defense, and accept a third-banana role in Portland. He helped the Blazers make a run in the bubble and get into the playoffs.
Let’s say the Knicks bring in both Paul and Anthony, which would liquidate a good portion of their salary cap space for the next two years. Maybe the team figures out how to add another helpful veteran along the way. In a best-case scenario, the Knicks manage to win 45-47 games, get the sixth seed and have the pleasure of getting beat by the Celtics, Heat, or Bucks in the first, or by some miracle second, round of the playoffs.
Now what?
The Knicks would be staring at an offseason in 2022 with Paul and Anthony, the two players that got them to the playoffs for two straight years, retiring. They would have some cap space depending on what they spent re-signing their own draft picks and other veterans along the way, and they would only have one additional draft pick to their own allotment, the protected pick owed to them by the Mavericks in 2023.
Would they be more attractive to free agents with the two main draws from their roster on their way to retirement? If so, only marginally. They would still be beholden to the whims of where NBA superstars want to play. Their success in 2021 and 2022 would have pushed them out of the lottery, severely reducing the likelihood of finding a difference maker in the NBA Draft. Their extra draft assets would be gone.
The Knicks would once again be at the very beginning of a rebuild process, wasting two more years of potential development and roster building for the joy of getting whacked in the first round of the playoffs. They would be staring at whomever is left from their current crop of youngsters and whoever the team would draft in the back half of the first round and second round in the next two drafts as the core of their roster.
The alternative? It isn’t tanking. It is slowly rebuilding in a patient and prudent way. Tanking is purposely trading away talent so the team gets worse to maximize draft odds. The Knicks would not be doing that.
They would, instead, give their young players a chance to show what they can do and try to develop them into real NBA players.
The team would not win a lot of games, but they would have two more shots in the NBA Draft to add players that may have the type of profound long-term impact that can make the Knicks long-term contenders. They would leverage their draft picks, assets, and salary cap space to give the team the best shot at landing players that would help long beyond the 2020-2022 NBA seasons.
Is there a guarantee it would work? Of course not. But there is a better chance of it working long-term than adding Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony. Even in the best-case scenario above, they would only help marginally for two years, which would only delay the inevitable rebuild that would have to happen in either scenario. Get on with it already. The Knicks are far better positioned to continue their rebuild now than they would be in two years, given their salary cap situation and additional draft assets they control.
This doesn’t even account for the worst-case scenario. Both Paul and Anthony are old. I don’t even mean “NBA old,” these guys are borderline real-life old. Chris Paul just turned 35. Carmelo Anthony just turned 36. I can say that as someone that just turned 39. Paul and Anthony could continue to play well the next two seasons…or they may not.
They could fall off a cliff, much like Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett did when they arrived in Brooklyn. They could suffer injuries, something Chris Paul has already dealt with, and fail to play enough games to make a real difference. They could get the Knicks to 35-37 wins and still miss the playoffs, but also ruin the team’s lottery hopes in the process. It would be devastating to the franchise.
And no, the point isn’t to trust the ping-pong balls. The Knicks’ history there is undeniable, having failed to move up on lottery night since the Patrick Ewing draft. The 2021 NBA Draft class could have more than a half-dozen players in it that would be the top player in the 2020 class. 2022 could still be the much ballyhooed double draft class, when high school players are allowed to be eligible again.
For the Knicks to take themselves out of the top of those classes would be masochism of the highest order. The joy of 45 wins and a short-lived playoff run is not worth the long-term cost of missing out on those opportunities for the Knicks to draft their own young superstar that could help the team be a true perennial contender for a decade.
The cost it would take to trade for Paul or sign Anthony wouldn’t even matter. Unless they can somehow help the team truly compete for an Eastern Conference Championship in the next two years, which I don’t think is possible, it doesn’t make sense to make them the centerpiece of the Knicks.
The Knicks rebuild is inevitable. It either happens now, or in two years when Paul and Anthony walk out the door. Do it now. The Knicks’ treasure-trove of picks, cap space, and financial muscle, not to mention an uncertain 2020-2021 season where fans might not even be in the stands and schedules may be restricted to regional play, make it the ideal time to do it.
Those team’s assets can help accelerate it if used in the proper way now. By 2022, those assets would be gone and the team would be starting from scratch.
Two 45-win seasons aren’t worth it. Don’t reach for the forbidden fruit. It may lead to temporary satisfaction, but the long-term pain will be far more debilitating. Embrace the theory of delayed gratification. In three years, it will all be worth it.
Follow John Schmeelk on Twitter: @Schmeelk
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