Brandon Tierney stirred up some controversy Monday night, when he declared on Twitter that the Yankees rotation was the best in New York.
The debate raged on social media, and continued on the WFAN airwaves during Tuesday's show, when BT doubled down on that declaration. Angry Mets fans opposed his assessment, while Yankee fans praised it.
So, who is right? Of course, here in early May, the answer is likely nobody. It is simply too early to tell. But with starters all logging roughly 5-6 appearances so far, there is a small sample size to go off of to see which staff has been better so far.
BT based part of his argument on pitting each rotation against each other head-to-head, so let's stack them up and see what the numbers say. For the sake of uniformity, we'll match up the starters based on MLB's depth charts for each team:
The aces: Scherzer vs. Cole
Of course, the best pitcher on either team, and perhaps the planet, is Jacob deGrom, but he still isn't throwing due to a stress reaction in his scapula, the continuation of injury concerns that derailed what was shaping up to be a historic 2021 season. So, Max Scherzer has slid into the ace role for the Mets in his debut season with the team, while the Yankees' ace remains Gerrit Cole.
Cole struggled badly at the start of the season but has returned to form of late, bringing his season ERA down to 2.67. He boasts a strikeout rate of nearly 30 percent, but Scherzer is third in all of baseball with 49 strikeouts, and while both have been bit by the long ball, Scherzer's numbers in that department are bloated by the three dingers he allowed to the Phillies.
If the two teams faced off in a one-game playoff, I'd give the edge to Scherzer.
Advantage Scherzer, Mets 1-0
Luis Severino vs. Chris Bassitt
At his healthiest, Severino is a Cy Young candidate, but we haven't seen that version of Severino on a consistent basis since 2018. But his start to 2022 has been incredibly promising, staying healthy and pitching to a 3.75 ERA through five starts, but his last two starts haven't been great, allowing seven earned runs in his last 11 innings.
Meanwhile, Bassitt, after an All-Star 2021 campaign, is pitching to a 2.45 ERA and has turned in a quality start in five of his six starts this season. He has been consistent, and Severino still needs to show that.
Advantage Bassitt, Mets 2-0
Carlos Carrasco vs. Jordan Montgomery
Like Severino, Carrasco carries his own health concerns, having his 2021 campaign derailed by injuries. But in year two with the Mets, he has logged 0.7 WAR with a 3.30 ERA. Montgomery has been even better in that department, pitching to a 2.90 ERA, and while he has never relied on the strikeout, he finally has the benefit of a stronger defense behind him thanks to the Yankees' offseason changes, and it shows in his .250 BABIP, the lowest mark in the Yankee rotation.
This seems like a fairly even battle, but Montgomery can never seem to find any run support, so we'll make that the tiebreaker
Advantage Carrasco, Mets 3-0
Jameson Taillon vs. Taijuan Walker
Taillon has reformed his mechanics to quiet some injury concerns, while Walker has been battling injury and fatigue since the second half of last season, after his first-ever All-Star campaign. Currently, Walker has a season WAR of -0.1, while Taillon has been splendid for the Yanks, pitching to a 2.84 ERA with a microscopic 1.9 walk rate.
Walker certainly has an upside, as we saw last year, but right now, Taillon appears to be more reliable.
Advantage Taillon, Mets 3-1
Nestor Cortes vs. Tylor Megill
The two sensations that have seemingly come out of nowhere. Cortes, a former 36th round pick, finds himself among the best pitchers in all of baseball with a 1.41 ERA, pitching 7.1 shutout innings on Monday. Cortes' ascent isn't exactly a flash in the pan, as he was a productive starter for the Yanks for much of the 2021 season, though nobody expected this type of improvement over the course of one offseason.
Meanwhile, Megill found a boost behind his fastball, and now leads all Mets starters with a 1.0 WAR, per FanGraphs (the same as Cortes). The question could come down to who you believe in more to sustain their production, but even if Cortes dipped a bit, he still owns an ERA over a full run better than Megill's 2.43, a better FIP, and despite the lower velocity, a higher strikeout rate.
Advantage Cortes, Mets 3-2
Totals
The Yankees actually hold most of the advantages in this category, in ERA (2.65 to 3.05), strikeouts per nine (9.34 to 9.33), walks per nine (2.27 to 2.29), and K/BB ratio (4.11 to 4.07). Many of those are so close it's almost negligible, and Mets starters have held opponents to a lower batting average and holds a lower WHIP. When totaling up WAR, the Mets edge out the Yanks 3.1 to 2.8.
Cortes and Megill are actually tied atop either rotation with 1.0 WAR this season, but the next three highest marks in that category belong to Mets pitchers. It is certainly close, and these matchup battles would likely change in a hypothetical playoff series (no way is Cortes at the bottom of the totem pole in the playoffs), but it seems like the Mets may hold an ever-so-slight edge.
Follow Ryan Chichester on Twitter: @ryanchichester1
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