All sports bettors want to have that long shot team to make the Final Four. It doesn’t happen every year, but everyone wants to be on the right side of history.
We are constantly looking for value and longshots, and there is an educated way to take that by looking at the path for the ‘Cinderella’ to take to get to the Elite 8 or the Final 4.
Here are five teams that are darkhorses to make a run in the Big Dance with odds to win the National Championship, courtesy of BetMGM.
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Connecticut Huskies (+3300)
Connecticut poses a formidable threat to navigate through a treacherous East region. As a No. 7 seed, UConn matches up very well with their first round opponent Maryland.
The Terps live and die by the three, top 45 in three-point rate with limited movement on offense. Connecticut’s defense is fantastic along the perimeter allowing opponents to shoot at a bottom 60 three-point percentage.
Past that, I love how Danny Hurley’s Huskies match up with No. 2 seed Alabama. Similar to Maryland, this is an Alabama team that is all in on the three-point shot.
We have seen Bama really struggle when they are not hot from beyond the arc, they have the 13th highest percentage of points generated on threes. On top of that, the team is 248th in defensive rebounding rate.
Connecticut is a fantastic offensive rebounding club, sixth in the country in creating second chances. With a defense that can limit the three and clean the glass, Connecticut is a live underdog to pull the upset.
A Sweet 16 matchup against Texas could be tough, but the Huskies have the size up front to match Texas’ length and the reliable James Bouknight that can propel this team to a special March run.
We’ve seen UConn teams get hot in March before, and it may be happening again here.
Oregon Ducks (+5000)
Oregon has won 11 of their last 13 games and have a manageable path as the No. 7 seed in the West.
The Ducks are going to be able to protect the ball against the turnover-reliant VCU Rams in the first round and also pose a threat to Iowa in the second.
Oregon’s offense has been humming of late, the best offensive efficiency mark in PAC-12 play. They also have five reliable three-point threats that all shoot better than 35% from deep.
I expect guard Chris Duarte to have a big Tournament showing and the Ducks offense to put up points against Iowa’s shaky perimeter defense. This will allow the Ducks to set up their zone D.
Luka Garza can cause some issues for a smaller Oregon frontcourt, but I’m counting on the Ducks to keep up.
A potential rematch against USC in the Sweet 16 would be a great revenge spot for one of the best coaches in college basketball in Dana Altman, leading Oregon to the Elite 8 and a likely matchup against Gonzaga.
The road may end there, but taking Oregon at +1600 to make the Final 4 gives you a great hedge piece against the Zags.
San Diego State Aztecs (+5000)
The Aztecs are on a 14-game winning streak and bolster one of the toughest defenses in the country. SDSU is 11th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, generating turnovers at a top 25 clip and shutting down the interior.
Brian Dutcher’s club forces teams to hoist from the outside because of an impenetrable defense that cuts off driving lanes. But, that leaves them to let up a ton of three-point shots, the 21st highest opponent three-point rate in the country.
When team’s do get inside, they don't score efficiently. The SDSU defense is 13th in the country in opponent two-point percentage.
A first round matchup with No. 11 seed Syracuse is a tough matchup. The Orange are starting to get going from three with the likes of Buddy Boeheim scorching from the perimeter. He hit 11 three’s in two ACC Tournament games last week.
If they can avoid an upset there, the Aztecs are in a great spot against West Virginia. SDSU can limit the Mountaineers second chance attempts -- top 30 defensive rebounding team in the country -- and attack an overrated defense.
There would need to be some positive variance going the way of the Aztec’s throughout this run due to the amount of three’s they allow opponents to take, but this is a well-disciplined team that has a reliable threat on offense in Matt Mitchell.
Sign me up for a physical Sweet 16 matchup with Houston. Both play slow and SDSU may be able to get the Cougars into foul trouble early and draw this game out. Houston is 333rd in opponent free throw rate.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies (+10000)
The Bonnies are an interesting case. The team only played 20 games this season but ran through the A-10 tournament. They bolster an elite defense and an offense that is awesome at creating second chance opportunities, 31st highest offensive rebounding rate in the country.
A potential flaw for the team is how thin their bench is, they essentially run a six-man rotation. Foul trouble would lead to an early exit for the Bonnies.
A first round matchup with LSU is a tough one. Both allow a ton of threes and LSU has the ability to put up a huge number on any team.
The catch is that their defense can not and will not stop anyone, especially on the glass. The Tigers are 325th in defensive rebounding rate, while the Bonnies are 31st in getting offensive rebounds.
After that, St. Bonaventure has a banged up Michigan club. The Wolverines inability to turn opponents over can make this game more of a rock fight than many will think. It’d be a big spot for Bonnies big man Osun Osunniyi against Hunter Dickinson.
Once they get to the Sweet 16, we can see who the Bonnies have but I see a great path through either Colorado or Florida State, two flawed, high placed seeds.
UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (+25000)
I expect both UC-Santa Barbara and Ohio to win their first round games, setting up a high level mid-major guard matchup between Gauchos guard Jaquori McLaughlin and Ohio’s Jason Preston.
To get to that point, UCSB will have to knock off Creighton, a team that lives and dies with the three-point shot. Creighton has a three-point rate of 44%, 33rd highest in the nation. However, UC-Santa Barbara is adept at shutting down the perimeter, allowing the 15th lowest three-point rate.
A thin Creighton bench -- outside the top 300 in bench minutes played -- will struggle to stay on the floor with the Gauchos, who have size down low with Amadou Sow and Miles Sow. As a team, UCSB draws fouls at a top 75 clip and also makes their free throws, 74% as a squad.
This is a veteran club that is in their first tournament since 2011. I love the matchup in the first round and I trust the depth of the Gauchos to handle Preston and a strong Ohio team.
However, the Bobcats interior defense is an issue here, 245th in two-point defense and I am going to keep riding my Gauchos until the end, even if it’s in painful fashion to the Zags in the Sweet 16.
While some of these teams may bow out before the Final 4, all have a manageable path to get to the second weekend and to the Elite 8 where anything is possible!
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Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.