The best part about the March Madness is filling out brackets. Who are the cinderellas? Which teams could get upset in Round 1? Should I pick all the No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four?
We break down the entire NCAA Tournament field to help you dominate your brackets and hopefully take home some cash in the process.
West Region
Who has it easy: Gonzaga
Gonzaga has the easiest path to the Final 4 of the No. 1 seeds. I will get into potential upsets below, but there isn’t a team that should stay within striking distance with the Zags vaunted offense.
Toughest draw: Kansas
There are several double-digit underdogs that are live in this region, but Kansas got a particularly tough draw.
Team to watch: UC-Santa Barabara
The Gauchos have a favorable matchup in the first round against Creighton. The Blue Jays live and die by the three -- 44% of their attempts come from beyond the arc -- and the Gauchos shut that down, with the 15th lowest opponent three-point rate.
After that, a matchup against a similarly dependent three-point team in Virginia or another double-digit seed in Ohio can give the Gauchos a path to the second weekend.
Value Bet: Oregon to make the Final Four
Oregon is going to be in my Elite 8. While they had a deflating loss to Oregon State in the PAC-12 tournament, the team has won 11 of their past 13 games and has a veteran leader in Chris Duarte.
I expect the Ducks to handle the ball pressure of VCU in the first round, while being able to score on this Iowa defense. With the likes of Duarte and Will Richardson getting into the lane, Oregon should be able to get clean looks from deep and match the Iowa offense, allowing them to set up their matchup zone and havoc-driven defense.
Luka Garza is sure to have a big game, but I believe in coach Dana Altman, who has his team playing its best at the right time.
Final Four: Gonzaga
South Region
Who has it easy: Baylor
Baylor is going to likely blitz the winner of the North Carolina-Wisconsin game in the second round. In that game, I’ll side with the Heels, who can impose their will on the glass. UNC has the best offensive rebounding rate in the country.
However, both teams will struggle with the No. 1 seeded Bears, who not only are fourth in offensive rebounding percentage, they shoot over 41% from three, best in the country.
Who has the toughest draw: Villanova
No. 5 Villanova has a brutal draw against No. 12 seeded Wintrhop. Winthrop runs a deep bench that is nearly the same team as the one that won the Sun Belt Tournament a year ago. Winthrop plays at the 11th fastest pace, which is the antithesis of Villanova’s No. 320th tempo ranking. Without senior guard Colin Gillepse to keep control on the floor, it may be tough to expect a big showing from the Wildcats. Winthrop is 23rd at turning opponents over.
Team to watch: Arkansas
This bracket played out perfectly for Arkansas, as I see them able to handle either Texas Tech and Utah State and also get a vulnerable Ohio State team that has the ability to stick to the likes of E.J. Liddel and Duane Washington.
Value bet: Oral Roberts-Ohio State over 154.5
Speaking of Ohio State, keep an eye on their first round matchup against Oral Roberts. It’s going to be a shootout with two deadly three-point shooting teams. ORU is 11th in three-point percentage and hoist at a high volume, 22nd highest rate in the country. Meanwhile Ohio State’s defense doesn’t generate many turnovers and has struggled to close out games. Before the Big Ten title game, OSU blew three straight double digit second half leads.
Final Four: Baylor
Midwest Region
Who has it easy: Houston
Houston should move to the Elite Eight with relative ease. West Virginia is a team I’m looking to fade in the tournament due to their poor defense. The Mountaineers are 155th in raw defensive efficiency, per TeamRankings.com. I’m not counting on a deep run by West Va this March, and Houston should be able to control this part of the bracket -- they are inside KenPom’s top 20 on both ends -- setting up a potential classic with Illinois.
Who has the toughest draw: Illinois
This is the most difficult bracket of the four, but I still see Illinois getting to the Elite 8. Loyola-Chicago and Georgia Tech is as tough of an 8/9 matchup you can ask for and is sure to be a high level game.
Both are turnover prone defenses each in the national top 50 in opponent turnover rate. However, I find myself siding with the Yellow Jackets and senior guard Jose Alvarado. The Yellow Jackets are going to need to defend the three well, they are outside the top 300 in opponent three-point percentage. I have no plans to bet this one, but both will be a tough out for Illinois, even though I think Ayo Dosunmu and co. escape with wins.
Not to mention a Sweet 16 matchup with either Tennessee or Oklahoma State, two more physical defenses.
Team to watch: Tennessee
I know many have jumped off the Tennessee bandwagon, but I may be buying this team as a Sweet 16 threat. If they take care of business against Oregon State, the Vols match up nicely with Oklahoma State, assuming both advance.
Tennessee has the length to match the Cowboys and turn them over. Oklahoma State is 298th in turnover rate while Tennessee bolsters the 15th highest opponent turnover percentage. Keep an eye on the status of Tennessee big man John Fulkerson, who left the SEC Tournament quarterfinals after a nasty elbow to the head.
Value bet: Houston to win the National Championship
BetMGM has this set at +2000, but Houston has a very favorable path to the Elite 8 and will be a tough out for Illinois. Along the way, the stiffest competition in Houston’s way is likely the No. 6 seed San Diego State, not No. 3 seed West Virginia.
West Virginia is a team I’m looking to fade in the tournament due to their poor defense. The Mountaineers are 155th in raw defensive efficiency, per TeamRankings.com. I’m not counting on a deep run by West Va this March.
Houston can match up with Kofi Cockburn down low and put length on Ayo Dosunmu along the perimeter in a potential Elite 8 matchup. This price is too high at this point.
Final Four: Houston
East Region
Who has it easy: Florida State
The bracket broke perfectly for Florida State, the No. 4 seed, who has been in a bit of a tailspin the last two weeks. The Seminoles escaped the ACC semifinals against North Carolina before coughing up another late lead in the title game against Georgia Tech.
FSU has the length to bother Hunter Dickinson and both teams should be able to get their fair looks from three. The key here will be if the Noles can speed up the Wolverines and generate some turnovers, and use their size to attack the hole on the wing with Livers out. It’s not super high, but the Noles at +300 to make the Final 4 is a great buy point for a Tournament future.
Who has the toughest draw: Alabama
Bama could be in some trouble against Connecticut in the second round.
UConn is one of the best in the country at limiting three-point attempts, top 50 in the country and also crash the glass extremely well, sixth in offensive rebounding rate. We have seen Bama really struggle when they are not hot from beyond the arc, they have the 13th highest percentage of points generated on threes. On top of that, the team is 248th in defensive rebounding rate. With James Bouknight, the Huskies may be frisky here.
That’s before a tough out against well balanced teams in Texas and BYU.
Team to watch: Texas
Texas has the size down low, with Kai Jones and Jericho Sims to pose some issues for Matt Haarms and BYU, while also having stud guard play from Matt Coleman, Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramney.
The Longhorns have been through a brutal Big 12 schedule and came out champions, they are ready for a March run.
Value Bet: Connecticut over Alabama
For the reasons presented above, this is a nightmare matchup for Alabama. The Huskies have been trending up, and can be live to make the Final Four if they get past Bama.
The bottom half of this region is full of intriguing teams, and any of UConn, Texas, BYU, or Alabama can end up in the Elite 8.
Final Four: Texas
National Champion: Gonzaga Bulldogs
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