The 2021 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot was revealed on Monday morning, featuring 14 returning baseball greats and 11 newcomers. And it's important to recognize each of the new names while you can, because odds are they won't last on the ballot for too long.
That's not to take away from any of their careers. Playing in MLB for 10 or more seasons, one of the requirements for eligibility, is no small task, and playing well over that span is even more impressive. However, given the elite caliber of the 235 former MLB stars who have been inducted into the most selective Hall of Fame among major American sports, none of these new names inspire all too much confidence.
The 11 players making their debut on the ballot are as follows:
— Mark Buehrle
— A.J. Burnett
— Michael Cuddyer
— Dan Haren
— LaTroy Hawkins
— Tim Hudson
— Torii Hunter
— Aramis Ramirez
— Nick Swisher
— Shane Victorino
— Barry Zito
Of the above names, the one who's likeliest to garner at least a five percent vote — the amount required to remain on the ballot for another year — is probably longtime White Sox ace Mark Buehrle. Among former pitchers who are not Hall of Famers, Buehrle's 60.0 career WAR ranks 15th all-time. Tim Hudson's 56.5 WAR isn't far behind.
Atop that list are Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, who return for their ninth years on the ballot, each having received a significant portion of the vote in 2020 — 61.0 and 70.0 percent, respectively — but not quite at the 75 percent needed to be inducted. Here's the full list of returning candidates, including their year of eligibility and percentage of the vote received last year.
— Curt Schilling (9th year | 70.0%)
— Roger Clemens (9th year | 61.0%)
— Barry Bonds (9th year | 60.7%)
— Omar Vizquel (4th year | 52.6%)
— Scott Rolen (4th year | 35.3%)
— Billy Wagner (6th year | 31.7%)
— Gary Sheffield (7th year | 30.5%)
— Todd Helton (29.2% | 3rd year)
— Manny Ramirez (5th year | 28.2%)
— Jeff Kent (8th year | 27.5%)
— Andruw Jones (4th year | 19.4%)
— Sammy Sosa (9th year | 13.9%)
— Andy Pettitte (3rd year | 11.3%)
— Bobby Abreu (2nd year | 5.5%)
Players who remain on the ballot for a long period of time typically see their percentages increase over the years, though the Hall of Fame only allows for 10 years of eligibility. Take Larry Walker, a 2020 inductee, as an example. The Rockies and Expos legend received a 20.3 percent share of the vote in his debut year on the ballot, a number that went down to 10.2 percent in his fourth year of eligibility in 2014, and rose all the way up over time. His trajectory after that point is as follows, barely surging above the threshold in his final year on the ballot:
— 2015: 11.8%
— 2016: 15.5%
— 2017: 21.9%
— 2018: 34.1%
— 2019: 54.6%
— 2020: 76.6%
This pattern bodes especially well for names like Omar Vizquel, who debuted at 37.0 percent, and Scott Rolen, whose first year of eligibility resulted in a 10.2 percent vote. The player most likely to be inducted in 2021, however, is Curt Schilling, though several voters remain opposed to his induction due to his controversial off-field actions and behavior.
The cases for players like Clemens and Bonds, of course, depend on whether or not voters are willing to let known steroid users into the Hall, a debate that should heat up if neither gets inducted in 2021 and will especially heat up when Alex Rodriguez becomes eligible in 2022.
You can learn more about the voting process and the Hall of Fame candidates here.
LISTEN NOW on the RADIO.COM App
Follow RADIO.COM Sports
Twitter | Facebook I Instagram