When Didi Gregorius signed a one-year/$14 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies last winter, there was a strategy behind it. Sure, he told the collective media at his introductory press conference that he didn't receive any multi-year offers, but even if he had, following an underwhelming return from Tommy John surgery in 2019, he likely would have preferred a one-year pact.
The thing is, after signing a prove-it deal, Gregorius, well, proved it. In the pandemic-shortened season, he slashed .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs, 40 RBIs and an .827 OPS. If you adjust his offensive statistics from 2020 out over a full 162-game season, he would have homered 27 times and driven in over 100 runs, elite production for his position.
Gregorius re-entered the market this offseason without a qualifying offer attached to him, likely thinking that, at a minimum, he'd secure a multi-year deal. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors projected at the outset of the offseason that Gregorius would land a three-year/$39 million deal.
Increasingly, though, it appears that two years will be the maximum that Gregorius is guaranteed this offseason, and even that's far from certain.
After being stagnant for much of the offseason, the gridlock on the shortstop market broke all at once Tuesday. Marcus Semien signed a one-year/$18 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Freddy Galvis signed a one-year/$1.5 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. And Andrelton Simmons inked a one-year/$10.5 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.
Following that trio of signings, RADIO.COM MLB Insider Jon Heyman reported that Gregorius was believed to be looking for a two-year/$30 million deal, with the Phillies and Cincinnati Reds, Gregorius' original team, seen as the two main suitors.
The problem for Gregorius is that neither the Phillies or Reds seem eager to meet that asking price.
As much as the Phillies enjoyed Gregorius in 2020, you get the sense that they'd like to keep their options open next winter, with a historic class of free-agent shortstops looming. They seemed especially keen on Simmons before he signed with the Twins. Jon Morosi of MLB.com has even reported that they have interest in second baseman Kolten Wong, with the insinuation that if such a signing took place, some combination of Jean Segura and Scott Kingery would slide to shortstop. Certainly, that wouldn't be an ideal arrangement defensively, but we'll see if Dave Dombrowski and company view it as a better option than going to two years with Gregorius.
Meanwhile, for as much as the Reds have a need at shortstop, the way they've acted this offseason would make them a curious fit for Gregorius, now 30 years old. They non-tendered Archie Bradley (who has since signed with the Phillies), gave away Raisel Iglesias and, by all accounts, haven't mounted a serious attempt to re-sign reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer.
It's not surprising, then, to hear Mike Puma of The New York Post report that the Reds are considering the possibility of trying to trade for Cleveland shortstop Amed Rosario, who the team acquired as part of their return from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor trade. Heyman adds that he's heard something similar, saying that Gregorius "may be pricey for them," in regards to the Reds.
If the Reds ultimately bow out, Gregorius will essentially be left playing a game of musical chairs, one where the music has stopped playing and the Phillies are the only chair left.
In theory, if Gregorius has to settle for a one-year deal, you'd think his team would want at least $18 million, considering he is coming off of a better year than Semien, who signed for that amount. However, when Semien agreed to his deal, there were multiple teams still in the market for a starting shortstop. There may not be now, and that could hurt Gregorius' leverage, both in terms of years and dollars.
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