Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera was on the verge of MLB history entering Thursday's action.
The 22-year veteran was just one hit shy of 3,000 for his career, yet another impressive accolade to further burnish his already Hall of Fame-worthy resume.
An uncannily well-rounded hitter, Cabrera famously ended MLB's Triple Crown drought in 2012, but he now could mark the start of a new drought of sorts, albeit one that is likely to last fewer than the 45 years between Triple Crowns.
With the two-time MVP graduating to the 3,000-hit club, the list of contenders who could potentially someday join him isn't very deep at all.
The likeliest candidate is probably Jose Altuve of the Astros. The seven-time All-Star, who turns 32 next month, currently has 1,783 hits. If he were to average 175 hits over the next seven seasons, that would put him on the cusp of 3,000.
Of course, it's difficult to predict how a player will age and how much injuries will come into the picture. Altuve was off to a slow start in 2022, and was recently placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain. Not ideal, but probably not a deal-breaker either.
From 2012-18, Altuve averaged 152 games, 668 plate appearances and 194 hits per season. He missed time with an injury in 2019, then saw 2020 shortened by the pandemic, but bounced back with 146 games and 678 plate appearances last season.
Outside of Altuve, it's difficult to find a strong candidate without some serious projecting.
Mike Trout should surpass 1,500 hits sometime this season, but he turns 31 in August and has been bitten by the injury bug in recent years. Plus, because of his prowess and fine plate discipline, he draws lots of walks, potentially limiting his ability to rack up hits.
Manny Machado, who turns 30 in July, should also eclipse 1,500 hits this year. He has been durable and productive for the most part, averaging 159 games and 174 hits from 2015-19. Last year's pace of 157 hits per season would get him close to 3,000 if he plays and remains productive for another decade.
Robinson Cano, 39, is technically the closest active player after Cabrera, with about 2,630 hits, but it's difficult to imagine him getting the necessary plate appearances to make it to the finish line.
After them, we're more or less left turn to the game's bright young stars. Juan Soto, who is only 24, will soon collect his 500th career hit, but he has a long way to go, and he too draws a ton of walks.
All of which is to say, we likely won't see 3,000 hits for at least several years after Cabrera, and it could perhaps be as long as a decade or more if Altuve, Trout or Machado doesn't get there.
The last to join prior to Cabrera was Albert Pujols, in 2018. That capped a four-year run of one player doing it per season, beginning in 2015 with Alex Rodriguez, followed by Ichiro Suzuki and Adrian Beltre.
Since 1992, 16 players reached 3,000 hits, an average of about one every other year.
The period from 1992, when both George Brett and Robin Yount reached 3,000 hits, to Pujols in 2018 may have been something of a golden age for the milestone, because prior to '92 it had happened 16 times total, sometimes with very long stretches in between.
When Hank Aaron reached 3,000 in 1970, it ended a 12-year drought from Stan Musial in 1958. Musial's milestone ended an even longer 16-year drought beginning with Paul Waner in 1942.
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