Rival baseball executives believe the Washington Nationals might be motivated to trade superstar slugger Juan Soto this summer, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
"Rival execs say the Nationals might well be compelled -- and motivated -- to move Soto this summer," Olney writes, noting that there are several conditions which could make this summer an ideal time for the Nats to deal their 23-year-old sensation. Among them, Olney notes that the Nats have already tried and failed to sign Soto to a contract extension, and as a Scott Boras client, Soto is highly likely to reach free agency after the 2024 season without a new deal.
Soto has himself confirmed that he turned down a 13-year, $350 million extension offer, offered by the Nats prior to the MLB lockout in the offseason, that would have paid him an average salary of $26.9 million per year.
"If they're not going to sign him [to a long-term deal], then they'll need to trade him," one evaluator said to Olney. "The question is: When?"
There's also the lingering issue of Nationals ownership reportedly looking to sell the team, which, as Olney points out, could heighten the chances of a Soto deal occurring this summer. "Incoming ownership would likely prefer that any Soto trade occur before the transfer of power takes place," he writes. Ted Leonsis, owner of the across-town Washington Wizards and Capitals, is believed to be a major contender in a possible purchase of the club.
Further clouding the organization's future, Mike Rizzo — the architect of the 2019 World Series championship club — may not be around to see the entire rebuild through. Though terms of front office executives are often murky, Rizzo's current contract with the club is believed to take him through the 2023 season.
For all of these reasons, the reality for the Nationals is wholesale changes could be coming to the organizational structure, which lends itself to the notion that Soto could be a prime trade candidate in the near future.
There are reasons to believe the opposite could be true, too. As Olney writes, "Trading a player of Soto's potential is not for the faint of heart, and not just because the decision-maker's résumé might one day contain the ugly line of swapped a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It's also difficult to glean equal value in a trade for someone as great as Soto. The Lerner family might not want that attached to their legacy; the same could be true for Mike Rizzo."
Olney goes on to write that "front-office types point to two teams that might be really motivated to move on Soto," noting the San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays.
If the Nationals are compelled to trade Soto — a decision that would surely serve as the most crushing emotional blow to fans to date — it's hard to argue with the timing. As Olney observes, Soto's already making $17.1 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility this season, putting him on track to earn a record salary through arbitration next season. In terms of maximizing value on return, two and a half seasons of Soto at a pre-free agency salary — even the highest pre-free agency salary in the league — is about the best you're going to get.
But, you'd have to part with the most promising young hitter Major League Baseball has seen since the arrival of Mike Trout. And there's plenty reason not to do that.