Who will be under center for the 49ers in Week 1?
As the NFL's 2022 new league year approaches at 1 p.m. PT on March 16, it appears three different scenarios are possible for San Francisco at quarterback. Option 1: Hand the offense to last year’s No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance. Option 2: Go all-in for a big name like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, like the Los Angeles Rams did with Matthew Stafford last year. Option 3: Stick with Jimmy G.
From the way Jimmy Garoppolo wrapped up his season-ending press conference with reporters a few weeks ago, telling 49ers fans, “It’s been a hell of a ride,” it sounded like a foregone conclusion he would be elsewhere next season. According to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, we shouldn’t be so quick to assume Jimmy G is out the door.
Schefter made a recent appearance on Pro Football Focus’ Ari Meirov’s podcast and discussed the 49ers quarterback situation, saying Garoppolo could be a better option than the unproven Lance.
“Maybe they do trade [Garoppolo], I’m not telling you you’re wrong,” Schefter said. “It still is absolutely on the table that he could be moved. I think he believes he’s going to be moved. I’m just giving you the other side. I don’t think it’s a lock that he’s going to be traded. He very well might, but it’s not a lock.”
Schefter said it comes down to the development of Lance. In his rookie season, the intriguing 21-year-old dual-threat completed 41-of-71 passes (57.8 percent) for 603 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also rushed the ball 38 times for 168 yards and a score while playing 10 meaningful quarters and making two starts.
Recent practice footage of Lance surfaced and 49ers fans are drooling over his potential in a Kyle Shanahan offense. But Schefter said expectations should be tempered.
“Trey Lance was probably further behind than people realized,” Schefter said. “Trey Lance is greener than people realize. Trey Lance is going to need more work than people realize and they have a roster that can win now.”
So, by keeping Jimmy G, would the 49ers be admitting they’re doing a poor job of developing Lance?
“He’s developing the right way,” Schefter said. “They are happy with him. But I go back to my initial statement, he didn’t play college football at all two years ago. He’s coming from a small school to begin with and there is a steep learning curve at quarterback like that, who’s blessed with a lot of talent and they still are very high on. It’s not a reflection of whether they think he’s going to make it.”
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Garoppolo might not have the most alluring style of play but you can’t deny his 35-15 record (.700 win percentage), two NFC title game trips and Super Bowl appearance with the 49ers since 2017.
If he’s traded as expected, though, how much could the 49ers get in return? An NFL exec said he could see the Washington Commanders justify shipping the No. 11 overall pick to the 49ers for Jimmy G. Schefter and Meirov used Sam Darnold’s trade haul as a reference point, noting how the Carolina Panthers sent a second-rounder, fourth-rounder and sixth-rounder to acquire him.
“So let’s say they get a 2, a 4 and a 6,” Schefter said. “Now you’re San Francisco. Now you say, Jimmy Garoppolo is unquestionably one of the most popular and respected players in our locker room. Players love playing with him. We have him under contract this year at a very friendly $25 million cap number. If we play with him this year and we lose him after this year, we’re going to get a third-round [compensation] pick in return. So, are you better then, playing this season with Jimmy while getting Trey the training he still needs? Or are you better for trading him for a 2, 4 and a 6? What’s the better alternative? You tell me?”
It’s interesting that Schefter termed Jimmy G’s contract as “very friendly.” According to Spotrac, Garoppolo’s 2022 cap hit of $26.95 million ranks 11th among NFL quarterbacks. If the 49ers trade or release him this offseason he would take $25.5 million off the books, which could free the team up for long-term extensions with Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa.
Another piece to this puzzle is the quarterback situation at-large around the league. Is Brady really retired? Is Rodgers finally going to break up with Green Bay? Is Deshaun Watson going to be available to play this fall? Is Russell Wilson finally done in Seattle? Or – are all of those scenarios just speculation and offseason talking points for bored football fans and media members?
“If all these other quarterbacks are staying, now does a team up its offer for a guy like Jimmy Garoppolo?,” Schefter said. “I think to a certain level, maybe yeah. Maybe if you were going to go a 2, 4, and a 6, you go, ‘OK, we’ll give you a 1 and a 6.’ Just going off the top of my head here. But, could it increase the value of Jimmy Garoppolo? Some, maybe some. But the amount it can increase is capped to a certain degree.”
All that to say, there are a lot of moving parts – internal and external – that will shape this forthcoming decision by the 49ers.
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