Cleveland, Ohio (92.3 The Fan) – The Browns come out of their bye week hoping to resolve a few problems that plagued them in the first 6 games of the season.
Unfortunately, the odds that the Browns are going to get well against the New England Patriots are not great, especially against what has been an historically great to date defensive unit.
New England has given up just 48 points, the fewest through 7 games since 1934 as opponents are averaging just 6.9 points per game. The Patriots are ranked tops in total yards allowed per game and have a plus-14 turnover ratio – thanks to 24 turnovers, 18 of them interceptions. They are ranked second against the pass and run.
The Patriots, who are amid the winningest decade in NFL history and can secure a 19th consecutive .500 or better season with a victory over the Browns, are 7-0 for the third time in team history.
Bill Belichick seeks his 300th career victory, which would make him the third head coach in NFL history to achieve the milestone, joining Don Shula and George Halas, but he would become the fastest to do it Sunday.
What to watch for – With the Browns offense underperforming and Baker Mayfield sitting statistically as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, someone’s got to pay the price. The first scapegoat is left tackle Greg Robinson, who said Friday he’s been relegated to backup duty going forward meaning Justin McCray will likely take his place. Don’t expect the benching of Robinson to have a major impact, but it at least makes the Browns look like their doing something to help their struggling sophomore QB.
Mayfield leads the NFL in interceptions with 11. The Patriots defense has 18 picks to date. This seems like a bad combination, and it could be if Mayfield isn’t accurate Sunday. Mayfield has the third-lowest completion percentage among 35 starting quarterbacks this season and that will have to improve drastically if the Browns are to pull off the upset.
As the weather begins to turn for the worse – and the forecast calls for a miserable, wet afternoon Sunday – Nick Chubb becomes all that more important. Chubb has shown he can score from anywhere on the field. He just needs the ball. Chubb is averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season and has a team-high 6 touchdowns. He’ll be matched up against another Georgia running back – Sony Michel, selected 4 picks in front of Chubb in 2018 by the Patriots. Michel is averaging just 3.3 per carry but also has 6 touchdowns.
Cashing checks is about the only thing Jamie Collins did after signing a 4-year, $50 million extension with the Browns following a 2016 trade from New England. Collins recorded just 7 sacks and had 2 interceptions before general manager John Dorsey couldn’t avoid the lack of value Collins was providing and cut him in the offseason. Since rejoining the Patriots, the linebacker has been on a tear starting all 7 games for New England where he’s compiled better statistics in 7 games than he did in 2 ½ years in Cleveland. Collins has amassed 4.5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 4 pass breakups, 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and a touchdown. He will likely be just one of many problems the Browns offense will have to deal with.
How do you deceive and then beat someone who has seen it all? That’s the question Browns defenders have been asking themselves this week as they prepared to face Tom Brady, who makes his eighth career start against Cleveland. Cornerbacks Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward return but safety Damarious Randall is sideline with a hamstring injury.
Myles Garrett is off to a sensational start with 9.0 sacks but he needs his teammates up front to pack the punch they were expected to but have yet to consistently deliver this season. Larry Ogunjobi has been the most productive of the other 3 starters with 3 sacks, 6 QB hits and 5 tackles for loss. Olivier Vernon has just 1 sack, tackle for loss and forced fumble to go with 5 QB hits and Sheldon Richardson has yet to record a sack, QB hit or tackle for loss in 6 games. They need to get after Brady in a furious fashion or risk the 6-time Super Bowl champion picking them apart.
One of Brady’s favorite targets, especially when he needs to complete a pass, is slot receiver Julian Edelman. The former Kent State quarterback is tied for sixth in the NFL with 45 catches and 14th with 496 yards, which also lead the Patriots offensively. He also has 2 touchdowns.
New England is an astonishing 97-1 at home when leading at halftime so the Browns should consider jumping ahead early if they’re to have any chance. The Patriots are outscoring opponents 70-7 in the opening quarter.
Last week – Browns had a bye, Patriots beat the Jets 33-0
Last Time – Oct. 9, 2016: Patriots 33, Browns 13
Series – Browns lead the all-time series 13-11 but Patriots lead 7-2 in the expansion era.
Memorable Moment – Belichick’s first coaching win came with the Browns, 20-0 over New England on Sept. 8, 1991 and he coached the Browns’ last playoff victory in January 1995, also against the Patriots, a 20-13 triumph on New Year’s Day.
Rankings – Points scored: Browns 23 (20.0), Patriots 1 (31.9)
Yards: Browns 21 (351.2), Patriots 10 (377.3)
Rushing: Browns 13 (119.8), Patriots 22 (97.6)
Passing: Browns 16 (231.3), Patriots 5 (279.7)
Points allowed: Browns 22 (25.7), Patriots 1 (6.9)
Yards allowed: Browns 23 (373.3), Patriots 1 (223.1)
Rushing yards allowed: Browns 30 (154.0), Patriots 2 (74.7)
Passing yards allowed: Browns 6 (219.3), Patriots 2 (148.4)
Turnover ratio: Browns 28 (-6), Patriots 1 (+14)
Probable Starters – Offense: WR Odell Beckham Jr., TE Pharaoh Brown, LT Justin McCray, LG Joel Bitonio, C JC Tretter, RG Eric Kush, RT Chris Hubbard, QB Baker Mayfield, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Rashard Higgins, RB Nick Chubb
Defense: DE Myles Garrett, DT Larry Ogunjobi, DT Sheldon Richardson, DE Olivier Vernon, WILL Mack Wilson, MIKE Joe Schobert, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB TJ Carrie, FS Eric Murray, S Jermaine Whitehead, SS Morgan Burnett
Injury report – Out: S Damarious Randall (leg)
Questionable: OT Kendall Lamm (knee), DB Sheldrick Redwine (hamstring)
Expected to play: DE Myles Garrett (knee), WR Odell Beckham Jr. (groin), DT Daniel Ekuale (concussion), QB Baker Mayfield (hip), CB Denzel Ward (hamstring), CB Greedy Williams (hamstring)
Uniforms – White jerseys, white pants
Broadcast – Radio: 92.3 The Fan, 98.5 WNCX and the University Hospitals Cleveland Browns radio network. TV: WOIO TV-19
Kickoff – 4:25 p.m. – Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, Massachusetts
Our prediction – Patriots 30, Browns 16
Our prediction record – 3-3
