Cleveland, OH (92.3 The Fan) – The baseball world has had nearly 24 hours to process the Bryce Harper contract. The 26-year-old agreed to a 13-year, $330 million contract with Philadelphia according to multiple reports.
The deal comes just a few weeks after San Diego signed Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300 million contract.
“I think the National League is to be commended,” Indians manager Terry Francona told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. "I think it’s wonderful.”
Indians manager Terry Francona on Bryce Harper signing with the Phillies after Manny Machado joined the Padres: “I think the National League is to be commended. I think it’s wonderful.”
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) February 28, 2019It’s natural to think of Francisco Lindor’s future in Cleveland when players like Harper and Machado are signing long-term deals. Will the Indians even try to keep him? How much money is he going to want? Is it smart to keep him? The good news is the Indians have options. The bad news is no one knows what their plan is.
What should the #Indians do with Francisco Lindor?
— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) March 1, 2019Harper will make just over $25 million per season on average from now through the 2031 season. Thirteen years is a long time, but the money is manageable. Harper signed this deal with the Phillies in mind. He wanted to make sure they could have room to spend on other free agents in the near future. It’s an interesting tactic and it makes sense. He will be 39-years-old when the contract runs out. Harper probably won’t be playing in the outfield then, but could still offer value as a designated hitter.
Could the Indians offer Lindor a similar contract after the 2019 season? Would he be willing to take less average salary per year in exchange for more years on the back end? Some have brought up the inflation argument and their point is valid – will $25 million have the same value a decade from now?
The money sounds like a lot, but there are 14 players in baseball making more than $25 million this season. Only two of those players are in the same class as Lindor – Mike Trout and Nolan Arenado. Pitchers like Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are also in the mix.
The Harper deal is a blueprint for how the Indians could structure an extension for Lindor. They could manipulate the numbers like the Phillies did in order to make ‘Frankie’ happy, while also keeping their payroll flexibility. Harper will only make $10 million in base salary this season.
Would an opt-out entice Lindor?
Another option the Indians have is to structure an extension like the one Arenado got from the Rockies. Offer him a deal in the 8-10 year range worth anywhere between $260-300 million. The Indians could also give Lindor the chance to opt-out after three seasons, which would give him another opportunity to hit free agency in his prime.
The Indians wouldn’t offer the extension now. They would wait until after the 2020 season. Lindor will be going into his final year of arbitration. Instead of waiting another year to test the market, he might be willing to sign a new deal, especially since it would allow him to test free agency again at 30-years-old.
The Perception of Ownership
Most fans view Lindor’s departure as a foregone conclusion. You’ve seen stars leave or get traded before, so naturally it will happen again. Everyone knows how fans view ownership. It may not be fair, but the Indians are considered 'cheap.' Would the Dolans plan ahead and do everything than can to keep Lindor, knowing fan perception would change in an instant if they did sign him?
The Phillies sold more than 100,000 tickets yesterday after the Harper contract was announced. Fans are willing to spend money if they believe in their organization.
Before the Bryce Harper news broke yesterday, the #Phillies had sold roughly 200,000 more tickets than at this same point last year. They have sold about 100,000 tickets since, #Phillies senior VP of ticket operations John Weber said. Hard to say, but it might be a 1-day record.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) March 1, 2019Can you imagine how the perception of the Dolans would change if the Indians did sign Lindor to a long-term extension?
Fan morale is down after what happened this offseason. That isn’t the sole reason they should consider signing Lindor to an extension, but it should be a factor. Hope sells in sports. Keeping Lindor long-term would end any ‘the Dolans are cheap’ complaints. It would excite a fan base, result in more ticket sales and keep a great player where he belongs – at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.
Which structure is best?
Harper’s deal makes the most sense for the Indians. Both sides may want to include an opt-out, but it would be a huge win for the Tribe if the average salary on Lindor’s extension was around $25 million.
It would still be a lot for them, but this isn’t Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana or anyone like that. Lindor is on another level. He’s one of the only players in baseball who could give teams a return on such a big investment. He’s under contract for three more seasons, which means the Indians have time to plan ahead.
It may sound farfetched, but signing Lindor to an extension could be more likely than you think.
