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While Thursday’s Sweet 16 schedule featured mostly heavyweights, Friday’s games offer more of a mixed bag. Of the eight teams in action, three are double-digit seeds. Of course, there are also three former winners of the NCAA Tournament, including two that are facing one another. That should keep things interesting as we look at the marquee matchups and key betting trends to know about.
MORE: SATURDAY'S NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING PLAYBOOK
But first, we have to mention that the BetQL college hoops model remains red-hot into the tournament. In the past 30 days, the model has gone 694-243 (74%) picking college basketball moneyline winners for a total return of $2,410 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see all of the tournament's best bets with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest college basketball betting lines here: Latest College Basketball Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert picks
BEST GAMES
8 North Carolina vs. 4 UCLA (-2.5), O/U 141.5
Needless to say, these are two teams that are never surprised to be playing in the Sweet 16. North Carolina might be a No. 8 seed based on their resume over the whole season, but the Tar Heels are playing far better than that down the stretch. They certainly proved that last weekend with a dominant win over Marquette before taking down Baylor in overtime, albeit after blowing a 25-point lead. The bottom line is that the Heels are 14-3 in their last 17 games and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games. That stretch includes straight-up wins over Duke and Baylor as an underdog, which means UNC won’t be bothered by being 2.5-point underdogs against UCLA.
MORE: SEE THE BETQL STAFF’S BEST BETS FOR FRIDAY
As for the Bruins, they made a brilliant run to the Final Four last March and look well-positioned to do the same this year with almost the same roster. UCLA has won 10 of its last 12 games with one of those losses coming against Arizona. They couldn’t have been more impressive during their win over a tricky St. Mary’s team in the Round of 32. They also got 14 points from Johnny Juzang in that game, as UCLA’s biggest star might be starting to come around again. Also, not only are the Bruins 10-2 in their last 12 games, but they are also 8-4 against the spread during that stretch, so if they keep playing at a high level, they shouldn’t be too worried about a 2.5-point spread.
4 Providence vs. 1 Kansas (-7.5), O/U 141.5
Not surprisingly, the Jayhawks have cruised into the Sweet 16 after winning the Big 12 Tournament. While they weren’t able to cover a double-digit spread in the Round of 32 against a Creighton team missing multiple key players, Kansas has strung together seven straight wins after losing back-to-back games to Baylor and TCU late in the season. Until the win over Creighton, the Jayhawks had covered five in a row, so Bill Self’s team is playing some of its best basketball coming down the stretch. In fact, their seven straight wins have come by an average of 13 points, which should bode well for Kansas as 7.5-point favorites on Friday.
MORE: SEE THE BETQL STAFF’S BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY
That being said, Ed Cooley’s Friars are 27-5 on the season. Outside of losing to Creighton in the Big East Tournament, Providence hasn’t lost to a team other than Sweet 16 participant Villanova since Jan. 4. In addition to covering in 59% of their games, the Friars are 8-1 against the spread as the underdog this season. That includes straight-up wins over Wisconsin, Northwestern, Texas Tech and Connecticut. The Friars are also comfortable playing in close games, as half of their games have been decided by seven points or less, making it fitting for Friday’s spread to be 7.5 points.
QUICK TRENDS
15 Saint Peter’s vs. 3 Purdue (-12.5), O/U 135.5
Can the Peacocks continue their Cinderella run as 12.5-point underdogs against Purdue? Well, Saint Peter’s is one of the best bets in the country, going 22-9 against the spread this season, covering 71% of the time. The Peacocks have also covered in nine straight games. Oddly enough, the Boilermakers went 0-9-1 against the spread coming into the NCAA Tournament, although Purdue covered both games last weekend.
MORE SWEET 16: TEAM TRENDS | BETQL MODEL TRENDS
11 Iowa State vs. 10 Miami (-2.5), O/U 133
It’s hard to know what to make out of either of these teams with the No. 10 Hurricanes favored by 2.5 points against the No. 11 Cyclones. Both teams have a winning record against the spread this season, further complicating matters. Miami is 9-3 ATS over its last 12 games, but just 4-3 ATS as the favorite during that stretch. Likewise, Iowa State was 6-3 ATS at the end of the season, going 5-1 ATS as the underdog.
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