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The Final Four gets underway on Saturday night with the Kansas Jayhawks taking on the Villanova Wildcats. These two teams have combined for three national championships in this century alone, so neither is a stranger to the big stage. As the only remaining No. 1 seed, the Jayhawks are listed as 4.5-point favorites over Villanova.
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest college basketball betting lines here: Latest College Basketball Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert picks
Dan Karpuc: Villanova +4.5
This game features one of the best team trends to know for the Final Four: Under Jay Wright, Villanova has gone 95-54 (63.8%) ATS after allowing 65 or fewer points in two consecutive games. The Wildcats allowed Houston to score just 44 in their Elite 8 win and Michigan to score just 55 in the Sweet 16 and have held their opponents to 65 or lower in eight consecutive contests. Kansas showed that their offense could dominate in the second half against Miami, but they managed just 29 points in the first half and now will match up against a slow, methodical, defensive-minded Villanova team that will want to take them out of their comfort zone. I like the Wildcats to cover in what I think will be a very close, low-scoring game.
MORE FINAL FOUR: TEAM TRENDS | BETQL MODEL TRENDS
Nick Ashooh: Villanova +4.5
There are two reasons why I lean underdog here, and it starts with coaching. Jay Wright has been a master in March over the years, getting the most out of his roster, even when it's a short rotation like they have now. Yes, the Justin Moore injury is devastating, but Wright is still 15-3 ATS after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games while coaching Villanova, and 8-1 SU when playing on a neutral court this season. The second important factor in this game is free-throw shooting, with Nova pushing towards the greatest season ever from the line (83 percent), while the Jayhawks shoot just 71.9 percent, good for 165th in the nation. Close games this time of year come down to clutch play and free-throw shooting, and the edge clearly goes to Villanova there.
FINAL FOUR BETTING PLAYBOOKS: VILLANOVA-KANSAS | UNC-DUKE
Matt Horner: Kansas -4.5
The loss of Justin Moore (Achilles) will have an impact on Villanova's inside game, and with Kansas doing everything they can to guard against the 3, that will hurt the Wildcats. Villanova won’t try to up the tempo of the game too much, but they can’t get into a half-court battle either. Sort of like being stuck between a rock and a hard place. I think the Jayhawks should be able to do enough in this game to get by, and they know how to handle tough defenses. All year they faced teams like Texas Tech, Baylor and Iowa State, some of the strongest defenses in the country. They're ready to finally not choke.
MORE: BETQL STAFF PICKS FOR UNC-DUKE
Lucy Burdge: Over 133
With Villanova averaging 71.9 points per game and Kansas averaging 78.4 points per game, I see this one going way over this total. Kansas has gone 18-17 on the O/U this season, so they are no strangers to hitting the over. Plus, Kansas scored 76 points against Miami and 79 points against Creighton, so I think they'll keep scoring against Villanova, who will have to keep up on offense, so I really like the over in this matchup.
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Brad Pinkerton: Villanova +4.5 & Under 133
I love both of these bets and will consider a parlay because these two outcomes should be correlated: If Villanova keeps this close, it is most likely because it's a low-scoring game.
Dan mentioned one of the strongest ATS trends in favor of Villanova, and there are a couple more to know. First, Jay Wright is 39-14 ATS after three or more consecutive unders while coaching Villanova; and the Wildcats have stayed under totals of 127 (under by 33), 136.5 (by 18.5) and 134.5 (by 2.5) in their last three tourney games. Also, the Wildcats allowed just 44 points to Houston and 55 points to Michigan, which activates this trend: Wright is 15-3 after allowing 55 points or fewer in two straight games while coaching Villanova. That's an 83% success rate! I'll take Villanova +4.5, though I still expect Kansas to win this game.
FINAL FOUR BETTING PLAYBOOKS: VILLANOVA-KANSAS | UNC-DUKE
As for the total, you can see what Villanova's defense has done the past two games. In fact, the Wildcats have hit the under in six of the last seven games, and four of those six unders were more than 17 points below the total! That will be the same blueprint against Kansas, which has quietly hit the under in seven of its last 10 games.
Note that BetQL has gone 16-5 (76.2%) on all Kansas bets in this NCAA tournament, so grab a Day Pass below to see which way the model is leaning for Villanova vs. Kansas!
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