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The second semi-final game of the Final Four features a rematch between bitter rivals, the No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 2 seed Duke. The Tar Heels are trying to put an end to Coach K's retirement tour after splitting the regular series matchup 1-1 against the Blue Devils. Duke is listed as a -4.5 point favorite heading into Saturday's highly anticipated rematch.
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Dan Karpuc: Brady Manek Over 16.5 Points
North Carolina may have split their season series against Duke, but Manek had two fantastic individual outings with 21 points and six rebounds in their loss on Feb. 5 and then 20 points and 11 rebounds in their win on March 5. Manek has also been a consistent source of points in this NCAA Tournament, netting 28 against Marquette, 26 against Baylor, 13 against UCLA and then 19 last time out against Saint Peter’s. Notably, he’s taken double-digit shots per game and has been lights-out from beyond the arc, going 16-for-34 (47.1%) in the Tournament. While I think Duke will win this game outright and move on to the national championship, I expect Manek to deliver as his team’s top scorer.
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Matt Horner: Duke -4
Even against elite defenses in the NCAA tournament, Duke is shooting close to 55% from the field, including an incredible display over the final seven minutes against Texas Tech. This season, Duke has hit 50% or more of its shots in 18 games, including each of the last four, and in eight of the last 12 games. North Carolina is 0-6 when allowing teams to make 51% or more of their shots, and they’re 10-9 when teams make 44% or more. The Tar Heels are 18-0 when holding teams to shoot under 44%. The Blue Devils have been held under 44% just six times this season, so I'm looking for a strong shooting game and a cover from Duke.
FINAL FOUR BETTING PLAYBOOKS: VILLANOVA-KANSAS | UNC-DUKE
Lucy Burdge: UNC +160 ML
UNC just defeated Saint Peter’s 69-49 to knock that huge underdog out of the tournament and now I think they’ll do the same to Duke. They have momentum here after the huge win over the Peacocks and I see that carrying them to upset Duke. They have the talent to end Coach K’s career in this game and keep moving on in this tournament and I think they’ll do just that.
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Brad Pinkerton: Over 151.5
Buckle up. These two teams hate each other and will be attacking relentlessly on offense. Duke won 87-67 in the first meeting, going over the 152.5 total, while North Carolina won 94-81, again going (way) over the 153.5 total. Also, both teams are 21-16 to the over this season, and UNC is 13-7 O/U as its offense has found its stride over its last 20 games, while Duke has hit the over in eight of its last 10 games. I'm expecting another fast-paced shootout between these two rivals, easily clearing the lowest total of their three meetings this season.
BetQL went 9-1 (90%) on all Sweet 16 and Elite 8 over/under bets. If you had bet $100 on each, you’d be up $719 right now! So grab a Day Pass below to see which way the model is leaning on the total for UNC-Duke.