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No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Villanova comes into this game presumably staring at just a five-man rotation after Justin Moore was injured in their win over Houston this past Saturday. His injury couldn't have come at a worse time, as he is one of their best players, and it's going to be hard to win when you have zero bench and everyone has to play 40-plus minutes. Obviously the Wildcats are more than just him, and they can win, but losing a player of his caliber is certainly a massive blow to their title hopes.
What they can still do is hit their 3-pointers, and that will be almost imperative for them when taking on a team as good as Kansas. One of the big reasons Miami got blown out of the water by the Jayhawks is because they shot an abysmal 3-for-21 from deep. They couldn't buy a shot, and after halftime, that inability to hit the trifecta buried the Hurricanes.
Luckily, that is one of the strengths of this Villanova team, even without Moore. Along with being the best free-throw shooting team in college basketball, the Wildcats were exceptional at closing out games over the first two weekends of the tournament. They didn't have their best performance against an insanely good defensive team in Houston, but they did what they had to do to get the win. That's always been a trait of a Jay Wright team. Adapt and persevere to whatever situation is put in front of you. That's why Wright is the best college basketball coach in the nation, in my opinion. Houston’s No. 1 defense was doing what it normally does, so Villanova stepped up its own defensive pressure and held the Cougars to 1-for-20 from 3, and sealed the game by hitting all 15 free throws in the win.
It will be a struggle against Kansas without Moore, but this is the smartest and most disciplined basketball team in the tournament. They don't turn the ball over and they play great defense.
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas easily dispatched Miami because they couldn't hit their 3s, and that will kill you when taking on this Jayhawks team. They are catching a massive break by the injury to Moore for Villanova, which really gives the Wildcats just a five-man "rotation." They are not a deep team. Villanova attacks the glass from all sides, and it does a good job of handling bigger teams without a problem, but they haven't faced a team like Kansas quite yet in this tournament. The Jayhawks are a rebounding machine, dominating the glass with their star big-man, David McCormack. They also do a great job of defending the 3, which is one of Villanova's strengths.
Kansas handled Providence’s 3-point shooters and destroyed Creighton on the boards, which helped them survive 12 3s from the Bluejays. Their defense has been excellent when it needs to be, and they will almost certainly try to make Villanova get its scoring from the inside and not from beyond the arc.
The Jayhawks are normally very good on the free-throw line and should be able to match Villanova shot for shot there, but they can’t get away with missing half of their free throws like they did in the win over Miami. If they want to win, they need to hit them at a very high rate.
Best Bet
I have faith that Kansas will be able to hit their free throws again like they normally would. The loss of Moore I think will have an impact on Villanova's inside game, and with Kansas doing everything they can to guard against the 3, that will hurt the Wildcats. Villanova won’t try to up the tempo of the game too much, but they can’t get into a half-court battle either. Sort of like being stuck between a rock and a hard place. I think the Jayhawks should be able to do enough in this game to get by, and they know how to handle tough defenses. All year they faced teams like Texas Tech, Baylor and Iowa State, some of the strongest defenses in the country.
They're ready to finally not choke.
My Pick: Kansas -4.5
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