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It's always a love/hate relationship with March Madness. We love watching wild games and crazy finishes, but more often than not, it affects those bets and brackets in a less than desirable way.
We should be used to it, but we never really get there right?
As we head into the Sweet 16, we have quite a few surprises still alive, while some of the blue bloods are watching at home the rest of us.
Let's try and shake off what happened last weekend, wash that bad taste out of our mouths, and regroup with some possible plays for this next round shall we?
# 8 North Carolina (+2) vs. #11 UCLA
UNC was one of my teams to watch as we got into the first weekend of the tournament, and they've delivered so far. They've put up 94 points per game in their first two games, which also helps if you're leaning towards the total here given that they've hit the over in both, while UCLA went over against Saint Mary's as well.
One of the factors I look at when trying to find any sort of dark horse in either the NCAA Tournament or any other playoff is who's been on a hot streak. Momentum heading into a postseason can do wonders for teams on just the mental side of things, and in a situation like March Madness, a high level of confidence can do wonders.
The Tar Heels had already come into the tournament winners of 12 of their last 15, and that momentum has clearly carried over. I like a close one here and a UNC cover.
#5 Houston vs. #1 Arizona (Over 145)
It's a battle of two polar opposite approaches when these two meet Thursday night. Arizona has gone over in 60 percent of their games this year, plays a lightning-quick pace taking advantage of the extra possessions they end up creating. Houston meanwhile loves to slow things down and has held opponents to fewer than 60 points in six of their last 11 wins.
So, which way do we see the scales tip?
Well, Houston has still gone over in two of their last four games, while Arizona in nine of their last 11.
The key here is whether or not Arizona can shake off their sloppy start to the tournament, and find a better rhythm against the Cougars. Given the talent the Wildcats have, I'd lean that way, and take the over.
As of the time this was written, 87 percent of the money was on the over as well.
SEE NCAA TOURNAMENT SHARP BETTING DATA
#15 Saint Peter's (+12.5) vs. #3 Purdue
Sometimes, it's just worth jumping on the bandwagon, and what we've seen from the Peacocks (still can't get over that nickname), it's worth taking them to cover in this game given that large number, and their resume so far in the tournament, including covering +18.5 against Kentucky in their first-round win.
Obviously, everything on paper tells you Purdue is the better team, playing in the bigger conference -- blah, blah, blah. We can talk ourselves out of this easily. But...sometimes you have to just remember, this is March Madness for a reason, and the confidence this team has, coupled with the "we're not supposed to be here" mindset that helps Saint Peter's play nice and loose, and you have a chance for this game to be a lot closer than it maybe should be.
Oh, and as of Monday evening, 76 percent of the money and 84 percent of the tickets are in on the Peacocks as well.
I like Purdue to win outright, but I'm riding with the Peacocks +12.5.
Let the madness continue.
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