The College Football Playoff semifinals are set! In the Cotton Bowl, Texas battles Ohio State, while the Orange Bowl features Notre Dame squaring off against Penn State. With championship hopes on the line, these games offer intriguing matchups, thrilling narratives, and, of course, exciting betting opportunities.
Let’s break down the key storylines, early betting trends, and expert picks for both semifinals to help you gain an edge before the action kicks off.
Cotton Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio State
We finally got our answer as to who will compete in the Orange Bowl as Notre Dame defeated Georgia 23-10 to advance to face Penn State, who had punched their ticket a couple nights ago in their win over Boise State. I have updated the article as such. Now, we can start to handicap and make wagers on the Cotton Bowl between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns.
Texas looked like they were on their way to a blowout win over Arizona State on New Years Day, but the Sun Devils had other plans. They managed to come back and tie Texas late. 24-24, and the game went to overtime. ASU took the lead 31-24, but the Longhorns managed to answer right back and tie it up again 31-31. In double OT, Texas scored immediately and had to attempt a 2-point conversion per the rules of 2OT, which they converted to go up 39-31. ASU failed to score, throwing an interception by the goalline, which sealed it for Texas.
Ohio State didn’t have nearly as much trouble in the Rose Bowl against the Oregon Ducks, crushing them 41-21 in a total blowout. While the Ducks were the No. 1 team in the CFP, I think many people had questions about just how good they were, and that showed in the game. Their defense, which had been blasted several times before this season, was a turnstile for the Buckeyes. Ohio State got revenge for an earlier loss to the Ducks in Eugene, and with no home field advantage, it was a very tough day for Oregon.
The line for the Cotton Bowl opened with Ohio State as a -4.5 favorite, and that got bet up immediately, moving to -6.5 at some places within hours. That isn’t too shocking considering the results of this past weekend. If you have been reading my stuff for a while, you know I have a 4/1 ticket on Ohio State to win the championship, so I’ll clearly be rooting for them. It’s early, but initially, I would bet Ohio State at anything under -6. There are a couple of books offering -5.5 and -5 right now, where some are offering -6.5. Make sure you get the best number possible.
As far as the total goes, I also like the Under at 54.5, per our BetQL model. It projects the game at 43 points, which seems a bit low but I also agree that 54.5 is too high. Texas has a better defense than Oregon, and I don’t trust Quinn Ewers to light up the Buckeyes defense in any sort of way either.
Early Leans: Texas +6.5 (-110, BetMGM), Under 54.5 (-106, BetRivers)
Orange Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Penn State
It took a little extra time to figure out who would face Penn State in the Orange Bowl, but in America, we don’t scare easily. Just a day after a horrible terrorist attack claimed innocent lives in New Orleans, the Sugar Bowl kicked off at the SuperDome, and chants of USA rang out in defiance of terror. Notre Dame and Georgia battled it out, and the Irish came away with an impressive 23-10 win over the Bulldogs.
While Notre Dame didn’t have their most impressive offensive performance, they trounced Georgia on special teams and also noticeably outcoached them as well. Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart is regarded as one of the best in the country, but Marcus Freeman drew circles around him in this game. Of course, not having starting QB Carson Beck certainly hurt the Bulldogs, and backup Gunner Stockton looked overwhelmed at times in his first career college start. While having Beck would have helped, he also was not having his best season, and there should be no excuses for any team. Plus, it seems the Irish now have a healthy kicker, which boosts their team massively moving forward.
Penn State managed to roll over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl 31-14, and many are also going to argue that they have faced a cupcake schedule to this point in the CFP, having whipped SMU 38-10 in the first round. However, this is a Nittany Lions team that has actually started to win big games when they needed to. In the past, these were both spots where PSU would have a letdown and lose to an inferior team. Has head coach James Franklin started to shake his nickname of “Big Game James” that he earned by coming up short in the biggest moments? We will certainly see against Notre Dame, a team that boasts superior talent to Boise and SMU.
The line for the Orange Bowl opened with Notre Dame as a very small -1.5 favorite in the game pretty much everywhere, and remains at that same number as I write this. The total is a different story, opening at all kinds of different numbers across sportsbooks. It opened at 43.5 at FanDuel, 47.5 at DraftKings, and 50.5 at BetMGM. However, a day after it opened, most places have now settled at the number 46.5 for the total. Imagine the middle you would have if you bet the over 43.5 at FanDuel and under 50.5 at MGM. That just shows how important it is to line shop and look for early lines to exploit.
This game truly is a toss up, and as of right now, I haven’t bet anything quite yet. I would have bet the under 50.5 at MGM, but even I was too slow to the gun to grab that number. Even at 46.5, the under feels like a pretty good wager. Both of these teams biggest strength is on defense, and both have quarterbacks that have yet to really prove they can consistently have success throwing the ball. The difference here could be the legs of Irish QB Riley Leonard, as he has proven to be one of the best duel threats in the country.
Right now at the books, the early money is backing Notre Dame, with 70% of cash going to that side of the spread at BetMGM, according to PR and Data specialist John Ewing. Additionally, 56% of money is on the under 46.5 as well.
If I had to bet right now, I’d probably back Penn State, but again, I have not bet on this game yet. I’ll update when I offically make a wager.
Early Leans: Penn State +1.5 (-110, DraftKings), Under 46.5 (-108, DraftKings)
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