If you bet the under in each game during the 2023-24 NBA regular season in which both teams entered with an under streak of at least two games, you did well. But hopefully that betting strategy was new this season.
Historically, pounding unders for teams on under streaks isn’t profitable. From 2004-05 through 2022-23, the ROI in those spots was -2.1%, including a staggering -16.1% over the last four years (2019-23).
That flipped this season with a 10.7% ROI, the second-highest margin in the last 20 years. For example, if you bet $100 on the under for each of the 93 opportunities during the regular season, you would’ve profited approximately $1,000. The season ended with 10 unders in the last 15 opportunities.
The postseason is different. From 2004-05 through 2022-23, the ROI in those spots is 10.7%. In eight of those 19 postseasons, the single-year ROI was at least 15%, including 19.9% in 2020-21 and 21.4% in 2021-22 before it dipped to -10.8% last year.
The trend already produced a winner in this year’s NBA Play-In Tournament (Clippers vs. Mavericks) and will resurface again on Thursday in Orlando.
As of Tuesday at BetMGM, the total for Game 3 of the Orlando Magic-Cleveland Cavaliers series is 198.5. The under hit in both Game 1 and Game 2.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for NBA odds throughout the postseason, including spreads, moneylines, prop bets, and parlays. And check out the best sportsbook promos for Odds Boosts, Same Game Parlay Insurance, and more.
