Some weeks it is really easy to know what to write about.
Others you have to scrape and claw to find anything to pontificate on. Then there are the rare weeks like this one where in the last 72 hours, we had the NBA Draft, the MLB Trade Deadline and the Nick Chubb contract extension and there is more to write about than you would ever want to read.
So, let’s keep it short and hit these three topics all in under 350 words. That way, you are not wasting precious family barbecue time reading this drivel and I can pour a cocktail and enjoy the precious family barbecue time instead of writing this drivel. It’s a win-win!
We will go in chronological order because that’s more fun.
Nick Chubb signs a 3 year, $36 million contract extension with the Browns
The analytics give you two rules when it comes to running backs. Do not take them in the first round and do not give them a second contract.
Rule one makes a ton of sense because teams can get great running backs in all rounds of the draft. For every Zeke Elliot, who was taken in the first round with the promise of being the next great runner, there is a James Robinson who was undrafted and had more yards than Elliot last season.
Rule two makes just as much sense because most of the time, running backs do not age gracefully. One season they can look like a gazelle gliding through the Serengeti and then next they look like a sloth, moving as fast as it can as the world works a double speed around him. We all feel for the sloth,
In a sport where speed is becoming more and more necessary, you don’t want to be in a position to wait for Flash. Also, can you tell I have nieces and nephews?
Nick Chubb is the exception to the second rule. He is only 25 and if you look at NFL Next Gen Stats, he is second behind Derrick Henry in yards in expected yards per play (meaning when normal running backs get tackled, Chubb often does not). He also sees the ninth most eight man boxes according to NFL Next Gen stats yet, Chubb is second in yards per attempt with 5.6 yards per carry.
So if you were going to pay a running back, Nick Chubb is not a bad one to choose. At 25, the cliff is far enough away that you are fine. Chubb will be in Cleveland until 2025 and at the peak of his contract in 2024 he will make $16.2 million and only 6.3 percent of the projected cap according to Overthecap.com
If the production continues at the rate it has been, this deal will not be an issue.
MLB Trade Deadline
The Guardians did exactly what they needed to do at the deadline (yes, I am calling them the Guardians from now on because if I don’t start now, I will never get it right.)
They unloaded anyone who was not going to be here next year and anyone who was blocking the path to a younger player.
If you were away from your phone on Friday, here is a list of every move the Guardians made. I especially liked how they traded Jordan Luplow and Eddie Rosario to clear up some of the mediocre outfield log jam. Sadly, they have already cut Pablo Sandoval before he could be enjoyed. You know what? Let’s check in on Pablo.
He looks so happy! Glad life is treating him well.
Myles Straw is a fun player. He is a great defender in center field due to his speed and has a decent arm. The fun part with him is in a league that focuses in on exit velocity and forgives swing and miss, Straw is a throwback player. He does not hit the ball hard (86.8 MPH, MLB average is 88.3 MPH), but he exhibits Zen-like patience at the plate. When Straw decides to swing the bat, he only misses 13.1 percent of the time. That is the twelfth lowest rate in MLB. He is currently hitting 261/337/333 and it will be fun to watch the on base continue to rise as he gets more playing time.
The rest of the season needs to be spent figuring out if Owen Miller, Daniel Johnson, Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, Ernie Clement and Harold Ramirez are a part of this teams future or if they will be playing elsewhere in 2022. Hell, toss Franmil Reyes out there and see if he can be passable in left. If you can maximize the versatility of a guy like that it can only help this ball club when someone needs a day off. The Guardians will be back to contending in 2022. This is just a hiccup.
The NBA Draft
I love the Cavs taking Evan Mobley, but we need to be honest with our expectations for 2021-2022.
This does not guarantee a playoff spot.
Mobley is a 7 foot tall center from USC. He is an excellent defender, rebounder and shot blocker. He can switch a 1-5 pick and roll and hang with the point guard. To quote Chris Fedor when he was on Baskin and Phelps last week, “Seven footers can’t move like Mobley.”
On the offensive end of the ball he makes the right pass and is confident operating an offense. He needs to improve his jump shot, but it is not broken. He also needs to develop some post moves. In 2021, the Cavs will not be going to him with 2 minutes left on the clock down four and expecting Mobley to get you a bucket. It is not his game, yet. In the future it may develop, but for 2021 it will not be a strength.
I love the Rubio trade for the Cavs as well. Rubio is an adult in the room. He is a pass first point guard who makes the right pass to the open man. Rubio is by no means a good defender, but he can swipe a careless dribble or a lazy pass and convert on the other end. He is a good backup veteran point guard and that is exactly what this team needs.
They need to use free agency to bring in a veteran or two who can play the three and take a lotto ticket or two. Jeff Phelps, Jake Chapman and I have a rule, if a guy is a former lottery pick and under 25 years old, bring him in for a look. That means I am looking at Justise Winslow and Malik Monk to see if these guys were just in a rotten situation and need a reset. I feel better about Monk developing into a productive player than Winslow, but it is worth a shot. Torrey Craig makes a ton of sense for this team as well.
Three Quick Thoughts
1. Trading for Russell Westbrook is a horrible move for the Lakers. He can not space the floor and is useless without the ball in his hands. They will regret that trade in February when they are dangling Westbrook and no one will bite.
2. If everyone is healthy (and that is a BIG if), the Dodgers may have the best team we have ever seen after the additions of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Their only flaw is the same flaw they have had for years. Will the back of the bullpen hang on?
3. Happy Birthday Jerry Garcia! Thanks for all the great music. One of the finest banjo players ever to walk this Earth and he wasn’t too bad with a guitar in his hands either.