The Cleveland Guardians opened the season with three straight run-line wins in division games, a nice start after a miserable 2023 season at the sportsbook against AL Central teams.
The nice start quickly unraveled as they dropped eight straight — their longest division run-line losing streak since 2008 — en route to a 9-23 mark through July 25. And while the Guardians have covered in four of their six division games entering Monday’s doubleheader against the Kansas City Royals, a run-line split put them at 14-26 for the season.
Against non-division teams, they’re 51-41.
Cleveland is baseball’s least profitable team in division games (-35% ROI) and the most profitable team in non-division games (16.3%). In all games, their ROI is 2.2%, the 10th best. If the Guardians were even .500 against the run line in division games, their ROI might be closer to 10%.
The division betting struggles have come both on the road (8-12) and at home (6-14), as a favorite (9-18) and an underdog (5-8), and against all three teams that occupied the bottom three spots in the AL Central standings for most of the season, the Detroit Tigers (2-11), Chicago White Sox (3-7), and Kansas City Royals (3-5).
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