This organization is a pitching factory, well maybe not a factory. Factories take in parts, put them together and produce a new product.
They have not produced any new humans out of the basement of Progressive Field, or at least none that we know for sure (though this organization does have two Logan Allens.)
But, how much can the mechanic fix before it is just time to get a new machine?
They are more of a pitching mechanic. They bring guys in, fix some things in their delivery, tell them to throw their best pitch more and give them a program which ends in an uptick in velocity. In the same way a great mechanic looks at what is wrong with what he is about to fix and not only fixes it, but fixes what will cause the issue to happen again.
The Indians have traded a two time Cy Young award winner, two guys who have received votes for the Cy Young and an above average pitcher in the last three seasons. Yet they still have a Cy Young award winner on the roster and some intriguing arms, who could find their way into this discussion.
The Starters
Shane Bieber is one of the five best pitchers in baseball.
Hand him the ball every fifth day and write in stone that he will throw seven innings, allow a couple of runs and have a double digit strikeout total.
One fun Shane Bieber stat before we move to the other guys, Bieber threw his curveball 26 percent of the time. Hitters struggled to the tune of .095 batting average and a .143 slugging percentage. Hitters swung and missed 51.5 percent of the curveballs Bieber threw in 2020. He is really good.
Zach Plesac’s 2020 will be more remembered for his off the field nonsense, rather than how good he was on the field. It’s really sad when you have a 2.28 ERA and everyone remembers you as the kid who thought seat belts were optional as you tried to explain your night on the town in the middle of a pandemic. It’s tough to make any judgement of the 2020 season for plesac because he only threw 55 innings, but in those 55 innings he was dynamic with his slider stealing the show. In 2020, Plesac threw his slider 216 times.
Hitters had a .069 average against it and whiffed 42.7 percent of the time against the slider. The one scary thing for Please is when hitters have hit his fastball, they hit it hard. He allowed 5 HR and an average exit velocity of 90.4 MPH in 2020. He either needs to better locate the fastball or change it out for a cutter or a two-seamer.
Aaron Civale is going to be the key to this rotation in 2021. In 2019, Civale came up and was a master of missing barrels. In non-nerd terms, hitters were not able to hit the ball square on the bat. They instead would hit it lightly into the dirt or lazily in the air. Only 2.4 percent of the contact Civale gave up was hit hard, while throwing a fastball that averaged 91.8 MPH.
He was the definition of the long lost crafty righty. Where is Les Levine when I need him to point this out? Aaron Civale killed a How Come Quickie staple!
Now I just need to find someone who drives in a driveway and parks in a parkway…
2020 was not a kind to Civale. His ERA jumped two runs going from 2.34 to 4.74 while the exit velocity and launch angle remained basically the same. He allowed 6.7 percent barrel reate which was up, but still about league average. So what happened? Is this just bad luck or have hitters figured out the crafty righty?
I think it is just bad luck. He increased his ground ball rate in 2020, which is the second best option to striking people out. The bummer is, his line drive rate went up as well. If he can continue to have his ground ball rate rise and limit the amount of hard hit contact, he will be a great innings eating third starter. I think he have faith he will, but I don’t love how the lazy fly balls have translated to hard hit line drives. Hopefully the new throwing motion helps the cause. Also if throwing motion talk is entertaining to you, you have found the right mediocre column.
This is where the staff gets interesting. There are a bunch of guys with very little time at the major league level and a lot to prove.
Logan Allen came to Cleveland from the Padres in the 2019 Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati- Franmil Reyes to Cleveland trade. He is a lefty (cue kids from little league dugouts across Cleveland yelling “LEFTY!!!!!” as they accidently spit their gum out alerting their teammates) who does not throw particularly hard, but his curveball, slider and change-up combination, give hitters fits. The problem with him is his fastball which sits 94 MPH, but has no movement too it. Hitters have teed off on the straight fastball the last two seasons, slugging over 600 off it and rarely swinging and missing. He had a great spring training in 2021 and made the roster as the forth starter. We know the secondary pitches will give hitters fits, the question is can he improve the fastball enough so hitters are not treating it like a batting practice pitcher.
Triston McKenzie made his first MLB start on August 22, 2020 against the Detroit Tigers. He tossed six innings of two hit baseball, giving up two runs and striking out 10. He hit 96.5 on the radar gun and made hitters look stupid with his fastball, slider and change up pitch mix. Just watch this
Just making professional hitters look stupid.
After his first start, he struck out less and less hitters and his fastball velocity dropped from 96.5 MPH to 92 MPH, but every so often, we would see 96 MPH come back out. There are two questions about McKenzie, can he hold up for 150 innings and can he sit 95 with the heater or does it sit 92 MPH?
Keith Law joined Baskin and Phelps before the season and had this to say on McKenzie.
If a former scout and one of the more respected baseball minds is not concerned with McKenzie’s build and drop in velocity, then I am not going to freak out. Though, I stand behind wanting to borrow that kid’s metabolism for a week. The secondary stuff is going to play great and he will be really good for years to come.
The Bullpen
I am not going to go through every bullpen arm because this column is already too long (I am a long winded mediocre writer. Think of me as baseball’s version of Stephanie Meyer.)
Let’s talk about the three guys you really care about, Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak and Nick Wittgren.
Clase missed all of 2020 due to a positive performance enhancing drug test. I am not worried about this having any effect for the future. Here is why:
Would you like a second reason?
Yeah. Clase is going to be fine. You don’t need nerdy stats to tell you this dude can toss. Your eyeballs can tell you that one.
The minute you see Karinchak, you know this guy is going to be an experience. He comes to the mound to Joan Jett and the Black Hearts Wild Thing, tosses the ball in the air to himself and tops out at 100 MPH with a 12-6 Wile E.
Coyote-falling-off-the-cliff curveball.
The problem is he has no idea where the ball is going. There are appearances where he is unhittable and others where he walks the bases loaded and can’t find the plate to save his life.
If he can limit the walks, Karinchak will be great out of the pen, even if he reminds everyone of Mark Fidrych.
Wittgren is the boring one. He just people out, there are no pitches that defy physics or come at you at the speed of Top Thrill Dragster.
Wittgren just gets people out consistently with little to flair. Everything he throws moves just enough to cause hitters to hit the ball softly in the air or on the ground at a fielder. It just works and I am not here to complain.
The True Prediction for the 2021 season
Our buddies at Draft Kings put the over/under for Cleveland at 81.5. I am taking a slight over. I believe they will win 83 games and be on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I know that statement will be a bummer for the majority of the fan base, but I just don’t see where the runs are going to come from after Caesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario and Franmil Reyes. Hopefully Josh Naylor hits the ball in the air and maybe the new and improved Roberto Perez can chip in.
Still, that is six guys who can (cross your fingers) hit and three players who have little hope.
AL EAST- Yankees
AL CENTRAL- Twins
AL WEST- Astros
AL WILD CARD 1- Tampa Bay Rays
AL WILD CARD 2- Los Angeles Angels (I already regret this)
NL EAST- Atlanta Braves
NL CENTRAL- Milwaukee Brewers (Yes, I am a homer)
NL WEST- Los Angeles Dodgers
NL WILD CARD 1- San Diego Padres
NL WILD CARD 2- New York Mets
WORLD SERIES- Dodgers over Twins in 6
AL MVP- don’t do it…don’t do it… Ah hell, why not? Shohei Ohtani
NL MVP- Juan Soto
AL CY- Lucas Giolito
NL CY- Jacob deGrom
