The first round of the college football playoffs have come to an end, and we have all of our matchups for the quarterfinals set and ready to bet. Hopefully, these games will be much more competitive than the first set, as every game featured a total blowout with nearly zero pushback from the underdogs at all. Now we have people questioning the CFP committee and which teams should or shouldn’t have been in. None of that matters now, and we got what we got, so everyone can stop getting angry about it. I wonder if Lane Kiffin will continue to whine on X that Ole Miss wasn’t included when his team lost to a terrible Kentucky squad.
The BetQL model has been cruising this college football season, racking up profits for our subs all year. Let’s take a look for what it is currently on in the CFP Quarterfinal games for a free preview, because we are nice like that and of course, we would love for you to subscribe to get the rest of the bowl games and much much more. Note: the values below range from one to five stars (one being no/little value and five being the max value).
#6 Penn State vs. #3 Boise State (12/31, 7:30pm ET)
Spread: Penn State -11 (1-Star)
Total: Over 52 (1-Star)
The first game will have the Penn State Nittany Lions facing off with the Boise State Broncos, and once again, we have a very large spread. I find it quite funny that the higher-seeded team in the CFP, which is Boise State who had a bye last week, is a massive underdog to the lower-seeded team. That just makes the argument that the rankings are broken more obvious, but again, it is what it is.
The model really doesn't have anything of note in this game that is worth a wager. A 1-star bet is not something we would recommend betting, as it means the market is pretty spot on with the model projections and there isn’t a huge edge. The model makes Penn State a -11.5 favorite, so at -11, there is basically no room there. As for the total, we have it at 53, so again there is nothing to write home about.
Sometimes we won’t have a bet on games, and that is just fine. Only bet when you have an edge over the books, and don’t force anything if it isn’t there.
#5 Texas vs. #4 Arizona State (1/1, 1:00pm ET)
Spread: Arizona State +14 (3-Star)
Total: Under 52 (3-Star)
The second game will pit the Texas Longhorns up against the Arizona State Sun Devils in another game that is lined as a total blowout. Once again, the higher-seeded Sun Devils are a massive underdog in the game to the lower-seeded Longhorns, two entire touchdowns actually. The BetQL model actually does have a few wagers here that are worth placing, however, I also wouldn’t be running to the counter to get down either.
A 3-star wager is, at least in my own opinion, worth a half-unit play. I wouldn’t place a full unit down here, as a 3-star is a slight edge over the books at the current number but not anything crazy. We have the Sun Devils as a +11 underdog here, so getting the +14 is a pretty good advantage for us. As for the total, the model has a fair line of 47 for this game, so that is also a pretty sizable difference.
In total, I’d have a unit on this game, splitting it between the spread and total.
#8 Ohio State vs. #1 Oregon (1/1, 5:00pm ET)
Spread: Ohio State -2.5 (3-Star)
Total: Under 54 (3-Star)
The rematch we have been waiting for between the two best teams in the Big Ten has arrived as the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Oregon Ducks. Finally a spread that isn’t nearly double-digits, and this should be a great game that could come down to the wire. The Buckeyes will be looking for some revenge after taking a loss to the Ducks in Oregon during conference play. Once again, just like the Sun Devils game, we have two bets here that I think are worth a half-unit wager.
The BetQL model has a 3-star bet on the spread of -2.5 for Ohio State, as it projects them as a -6 favorite in this game right now. The total is much of the same, with the model projecting 50 points for a fair line, and the number being 54 in most places through the market.
I’ll have a half unit on each of these bets, as I have to have something to sweat out here. Any true degen is going to have something, so let’s go Buckeyes and defense.
#7 Notre Dame vs. #2 Georgia (1/1, 8:45pm ET)
Spread: Notre Dame +1.5 (4-Star)
Total: Over 44 (3-Star)
Last, but certainly not least, we have the game projected in the market as the closest matchup of the quarterfinals. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the Georgia Bulldogs in a highly anticipated matchup, but one that may not be entirely at full strength, with Bulldogs QB Carson Beck out for the foreseeable future with an injury. The good news is that we have our best bet of the quarterfinals in this matchup, taking Notre Dame as an underdog here against a backup QB.
The BetQL model is projecting Notre Dame as a -3 favorite in this game with Beck sidelined, so getting them at +1.5 has triggered a full unit wager for us, our only one of the weekend. As far as the total goes, another half unit will be placed on the over at 44, as the model projects a fair line of 47.5 in this game even with a backup QB in for Georgia.
Hopefully everyone is having a wonderful holiday season, and we can continue to pay for the presents here at BetQL with some CFP winners for you.
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