Week 13 of the college football season is packed with intriguing matchups and plenty of value in the player prop market. This week, we’re targeting standout performances from Miami QB Cam Ward, North Carolina QB Jacolby Criswell, and Missouri RB Nate Noel, all poised for big games against struggling defenses. Whether it’s Ward shredding Wake Forest through the air or Noel pounding Mississippi State on the ground, these props offer excellent betting opportunities. Let’s break down the stats and matchups behind each pick.
Miami QB Cam Ward Over 343.5 Passing Yards vs. Wake Forest (-110, DraftKings)
While it seems like a foregone conclusion that two-way star Travis Hunter is going to win the Heisman, it’s important to not ignore how incredible Ward’s production has been this year. Averaging a ridiculous 349.4 passing yards per game, he’s gone over this 343.5-yard mark in six of 10 starts and now gets a delicious matchup against a Wake Forest defense that has allowed 296.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 132nd of 134 FBS teams. Hanging 400 yards (again) could sway some Heisman voters… just saying.
This is one of his easiest matchups of the year and Wake has virtually no chance to keep Ward and Miami’s offense in check. Ranked 11th nationally, the Hurricanes need to keep winning and winning big to solidify their College Football Playoff resume.
North Carolina QB Jacolby Criswell Over 212.5 Passing Yards vs. Boston College (-118, Caesars)
Omarion Hampton is the focal point of North Carolina’s offense, but if Mack Brown wants to exploit Boston College’s defensive weakness, it’ll be through the air with QB Jacolby Criswell. BC has allowed 340.7 passing yards per game over their last three contests, 299.3 per game at home (4th-most in the FBS) and Criswell posted a high of 475 passing yards vs. James Madison in a shootout earlier this season and has gone over this mark in four of his last seven starts. There’s a lot to like about the 23 year old’s outlook and upside in this specific matchup.
Missouri RB Nate Noel 100+ Alt Rushing Yards at Mississippi State (+120, DraftKings)
Last week, Noel took 27 carries for 150 yards and a TD against South Carolina and notably took over fully from Marcus Carroll and Jamal Roberts, who filled in for him when he was out injured or playing at less than 100%. His backups only saw two combined carries, both from Carroll. Missouri is going to lean on Noel again in this matchup and the running back has averaged 5.6 yards per carry and flashed huge game potential, with 121, 150 and 199 in different starts this year.
Mississippi State has allowed 224.3 rushing yards per game (127th in FBS), including 266.0 over their last three games, and the Tigers are -7.5 road favorites, which favors a running game script. I’ll grab the alt line at 100+ rushing yards over at DraftKings.
