The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is here, bringing exciting matchups and unique betting opportunities. Player prop bets offer great value, especially when considering game scripts, weather conditions, and individual matchups. From Kareem Hunt’s ground game in cold Kansas City to Jayden Daniels’ potential aerial assault in Detroit, we’re breaking down our top prop picks for this weekend. Whether you're looking to back volume or efficiency, these bets stand out as must-consider plays.
Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt Over 31.5 Rushing Yards vs. Texans (-113, FanDuel)
It’s going to be cold and windy at Arrowhead Stadium when the Chiefs host the Texans and Hunt is going to be a big part of Kansas City’s game plan. Finally healthy and rested, the veteran and Isiah Pacheco are going to split carries, as Andy Reid confirmed, per The Athletic. “You take a beating at that position,” coach Andy Reid said last week. “With those two, I don’t know how I’ll divvy up (the touches). I would imagine it would just end up being the same. They will both be in there battling.”
Kansas City’s rushing attack has been a source of trouble for their offense during the regular season, but they dealt with numerous injuries. Now, Hunt, who took 11 carries for 55 yards against Houston in their regular season meeting, should be running hard and should have a great chance to surpass this number if he sees right around 10 carries.
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Over 34.5 Pass Attempts vs. Lions (-110, BetMGM)
Over his last eight games where he started and played the whole contest, Daniels has gone over his pass attempt totals. Now, with the season on the line, the presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year will have the luxury of escaping the weather elements and will be playing inside a dome in Detroit. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown the ball an average of 35.82 times per game (4th-most in NFL) against the Lions this season and as 8.5-point underdogs, Washington will likely be playing from behind and in a pass-heavy game script.
Last time out, Daniels went 24-for-35 passing for 268 yards and two touchdowns in his first playoff start against the Buccaneers. I expect it to be tough sledding for Washington’s running game in this one; the Lions have allowed just 68.65 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season (2nd-fewest in the NFL). Therefore, there are a lot of factors working in Daniels’ favor and I expect him to ball out under the bright lights.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Over 21.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Rams (-108, BetRivers)
The Philadelphia area is going to likely deal with a mixture of rain, snow, wind and freezing rain for this game between the Eagles and Rams on Sunday. Therefore, I expect the passing game on both teams to struggle and for Barkley to be fed the football. Last week, he took 25 carries for 119 yards in a win over the Packers and finished the regular season taking 29 and 31 carries. Overall, he’s gone over this mark in eight of his last 11 starts.
Back on November 24 in Los Angeles, Barkley had his best game of the entire season, taking 26 carries for 255 yards (9.8 yards per carry) and two touchdowns, so he has the blueprint to dominate this one. I expect Philadelphia to lean on their MVP candidate and give him the pigskin time after time as they try to dominate on the ground once again.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Bills (-113, FanDuel)
This is going to be another game impacted by weather. There’s already snow on the ground in Buffalo and it’s expected to be frigid with a below-negative wind chill with the potential for more lake effect snow. Henry took 24 carries for 199 yards and a touchdown in the regular season meeting between these teams on September 29, arguably his best performance of the season. He took 26 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers last week and this game environment should benefit Henry, who has gone over this mark four straight times dating back to the regular season.
It’s worth noting that Buffalo’s starting linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano as well as nickel cornerback Taron Johnson were all out in that first meeting against Henry and the Bills, but will be available for the rematch. I’ll still give the edge to Henry, but in weather games like this, I generally like to target volume over yardage. I will do exactly that once again here.
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