As we move past the midway point of the NFL season, we’re starting to learn which teams have a shot to make some serious noise in the playoffs, which teams have put themselves at least in the conversation, and which teams might as well start preparing for the 2021 NFL Draft. And as such, it’s time for my first 2020 playoff picture breakdown, one that features one remaining unbeaten, one of last year’s two Super Bowl teams poised to contend for a return trip, and a logjam atop the NFC. Let’s make some sense of where we stand heading into Week 10.
NFC
NORTH
1) Green Bay (6-2) | 2) Chicago (5-4) | 3) Minnesota (3-5) | 4) Detroit (3-5)
OUT: NONE
The Packers started 4-0, but they’ve alternated wins and losses since. They were successful this week though, winning Thursday night over the triage-unit Niners. The Bears meanwhile are in freefall. Chicago once held the lead in the North, but three straight losses have caused their early-season success to look like a distant memory, and they now trail the Pack by 1 ½ games. Their next three games are all in the division and could define their season.
Both the Vikings and Lions are 3 games back, but their outlooks couldn’t be more different. Minnesota started 1-5 but has won two straight, including the victory over Detroit this week that hands them the head-to-head tiebreaker that puts them in third. The Lions have lost two in a row since climbing to 3-3, and it looks like yet another sad year in Motown.
WEST
1) Seattle (6-2) | 2) Arizona (5-3) | 3) Los Angeles (5-3) | 4) San Francisco (4-5)
OUT: NONE
There’s a very good chance that the NFC West may be the best division in the NFL this year. There was also an outside chance that, for the first time in NFL history, thanks to the addition of a third wild-card spot, an entire division could have made the playoffs. That however was before the 49ers got absolutely decimated by injuries. Now the defending West champs are looking like an also-ran, but the three-team race here is still awfully compelling.
Seattle started 5-0 but have come back to Earth after losing two of their last three and now hold just a 1-game lead at the top. Both Arizona and L.A. are right there with them, with second-year quarterback Kyler Murray's surprisingly-game Cardinals holding the tiebreaker for second place thanks to divisional record (2-0 vs. 0-1 for the Rams).
EAST
1) Philadelphia (3-4-1) | 2) Washington (2-6) | 3) Dallas (2-7) | 4) New York (2-7)
OUT: NONE
The NFC East has long been dubbed the “NFC Least,” but my goodness… I can’t remember an entire division looking this putrid nine weeks into a season.
We might see all four of these teams remain in contention until the final week of the season at this rate. For what it’s worth, the Eagles are in the lead as the only team in the division with more than two wins. They’ve also got a tie, which while not as good as a win is still better than a loss, and in this year’s NFC East, it’s a MAJOR separator.
Washington trails by 1 ½ games, and both Dallas and New York sit 2 games back. The Cowboys have the head-to-head edge over the Giants thanks to a Week 5 victory.
SOUTH
1) New Orleans (6-2) | 2) Tampa Bay (6-3) | 3) Atlanta (3-6) | 4) Carolina (3-6)
OUT: NONE
It took nearly half the season for them to find themselves, but the Saints put it all together this week in completing the season sweep of the Buccaneers. The result is a ½ game lead that is really quite a bit wider. They’re one better in the loss column than Tampa and have the head-to-head tiebreakers sewn up. With the South already virtually whittled down to a two-team race, it’s all there at the midway point for New Orleans to make it four straight division crowns. But there could be more written in this rivalry’s story come playoff-time.
Atlanta and Carolina both sit 3 ½ games back, and with the two already splitting the season series, it comes down to divisional record, giving the Falcons (1-1) the edge over the Panthers (1-2).
DIVISION LEADERS
1) New Orleans (6-2) | 2) Seattle (6-2) | 3) Green Bay (6-2) | 4) Philadelphia (3-4-1)
Just in time for our first edition of the Playoff Picture in 2020, the Saints vaulted straight from the wild-card race to the top spot in the NFC after beating the Bucs to take back control of the South.
New Orleans is tied with both Seattle and Green Bay with all of them at 6-2. Because of the presence of the Seahawks, the Packers’ Week 3 win over the Saints is thrown out the window.
For a head-to-head tiebreaker to count in a three-way tie, a team MUST beat both of the other teams or lose to both of the other teams. Seattle and Green Bay have not played this season, and in fact, will not play this season. That means the tiebreaker reverts to conference record, where the three teams rank like this:
1) New Orleans (5-1) | 2) Seattle (4-1) | 3) Green Bay (5-2)
And that’s how the Saints took over the top spot. As for the Eagles, they sit 2 ½ games back but it feels like a mile at this point.
WILD CARD
1) Tampa Bay (6-3) | 2) Arizona (5-3) | 3) Los Angeles (5-3) | 4) Chicago (5-4)
While the Buccaneers got humbled by the Saints this week and lost their divisional lead, they drop right into the top wild-card spot, where they lead the pack by a ½ game over the Cardinals and Rams, who sit at #2 and #3 thanks to divisional tiebreakers in the NFC West.
The only other NFC team above .500 is the Bears, but it sure doesn’t feel like they will be for much longer.
AFTERTHOUGHTS
1) San Francisco (4-5) | 2) Minnesota (3-5) | 3) Detroit (3-5) | 4) Atlanta (3-6)
5) Carolina (3-6) | 6) Washington (2-6) | 7) Dallas (2-7) | 8) New York (2-7)
All the ties here are separated by divisional tiebreakers.
ELIMINATED
NONE
AFC
NORTH
1) Pittsburgh (8-0) | 2) Baltimore (6-2) | 3) Cleveland (5-3) | 4) Cincinnati (2-5-1)
OUT: NONE
It’s pretty incredible considering their storied history that the Steelers have never been 8-0 before, but that’s where they find themselves after surviving an upset scare in Dallas.
More important than just the mantle of being the final unbeaten, Pittsburgh has opened up a 2-game lead over the Ravens and owns a win over Baltimore with the rematch still to come. The Ravens at least kept pace with what could be a key victory over the Colts.
The Browns trail by 3 games with the Bengals in a distant fourth at 5 ½ games back. Both sat idle last weekend.
WEST
1) Kansas City (8-1) | 2) Las Vegas (5-3) | 3) Denver (3-5) | 4) Los Angeles (2-6)
OUT: NONE
It’s no surprise that the defending world champs are easily at the head of the pack in the West, though they were tested by the Panthers in Week 9. But the rise of the Raiders may have been unexpected by some. They already own a win over KC this season, and kept themselves within striking distance by hanging on to beat the heartbreaking Chargers to remain 2 ½ games behind the Chiefs.
The Broncos’ struggles from 2019 have continued into 2020. They trail Kansas City by 4 ½ already, and the story is even worse for the Bolts. Los Angeles has lost SIX one-score games this season, tying a record for the first half of the season. The big picture is bright with Justin Herbert under center, but the current landscape finds them 5 ½ games back.
EAST
1) Buffalo (7-2) | 2) Miami (5-3) | 3) New England (3-5)
OUT: New York (0-9)
The East has quickly become a two-team race, and shockingly, those two teams do not include the Patriots. It’s starting to appear the Pats’ 11-year run atop the division will come to an end. So who’s it going to be? The Bills have been the front-runner all season after a 4-0 start. They’re currently riding another three-game winning streak after looking dominant against the Seahawks, and they already hold a 4-0 divisional record that includes a win over their closest competition.
That would be the Dolphins, who were bad enough last season to pick Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the 5th overall pick in the draft, but somehow have flipped their fortunes enough to hold a winning record after the first half of this season. They trail Buffalo by 1 ½ games but have lost once to the Bills already.
The Patriots trail by 3 ½ games and barely slipped past the winless Jets on Monday Night Football. That doesn’t bode well for any second-half runs that might keep their streak of East crowns alive.
Not surprisingly, the Jets have the largest gap of any team in their division, already sitting 7 games out of first with seven games to play. Coupled with the fact that they’ve been swept already by division-leader Buffalo AND are 0-4 in divisional play, all the mathematical paths to an East crown have been walled off, making the Jets the first team to suffer any type of elimination in 2020. (Their wild-card hopes remain dimly alive for the time being.)
SOUTH
1) Tennessee (6-2) | 2) Indianapolis (5-3) | 3) Houston (2-6) | 4) Jacksonville (1-7)
OUT: NONE
The Titans have continued their momentum from their surprisingly deep playoff run last season, jumping out to a lead in the South. And the bottom line is they could just about salt away the divisional title before the calendar flips to December.
Tennessee plays the second-place Colts twice in their next three games. Their lead is just 1 game right now, but sweeping Indy would make their potential climb to the top very tough.
Defending champion Houston has been one of the year’s biggest disappointments and has already fired coach/GM Bill O’Brien. They sit 4 games back with only two wins this season. Both have come over the Jaguars, who sit 5 games back.
DIVISION LEADERS
1) Pittsburgh (8-0) | 2) Kansas City (8-1) | 3) Buffalo (7-2) | 4) Tennessee (6-2)
What a difference a year and a quarterback make. Last year with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, the Steelers missed the postseason completely. Big Ben’s 2020 return has not just put them back in the mix, it has bumped them to the head of the class in the AFC.
The defending champion Chiefs are nipping at their heels though at just a ½ game back. The Bills are 1 ½ games back with the Titans trailing by 2 games. Tennessee though has already lost to Pittsburgh this season.
WILD CARD
1) Baltimore (6-2) | 2) Las Vegas (5-3) | 3) Miami (5-3)
4) Cleveland (5-3) | 5) Indianapolis (5-3)
Even with the addition of a wild-card spot in 2020, there’s going to be a fight to get into the postseason in the AFC.
The Ravens sit with a 1 game advantage over the pack, with FOUR teams tied for the remaining two spots.
Conference record puts the Raiders (3-2) at the top and the Colts (2-3) at the bottom. Both the Dolphins and Browns are .500 in AFC play, so to separate them, we head to strength-of-victory, giving Miami the edge (15-26) over Cleveland (13-26-2). But the Browns are still positioned well to end the NFL’s longest playoff drought… for now.
AFTERTHOUGHTS
1) Denver (3-5) | 2) New England (3-5) | 3) Cincinnati (2-5-1) | 4) Los Angeles (2-6)
5) Houston (2-6) | 6) Jacksonville (1-7) | 7) New York (0-9)
The Broncos hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots (Week 6).
AFC record separates the Chargers (2-3) from the Texans (2-4).
ELIMINATED
No one has been eliminated yet, but the Jets and Jags are definitely closing in on that distinction.
GAMES TO WATCH: WEEK 10
The Titans and Colts battle for first-place in the AFC South on Thursday night. They’ll play each other twice in three weeks.
Arizona is facing down a gauntlet stretch that will make or break their playoff hopes. After losing their first test against the Dolphins, it continues this Sunday against the AFC East-leading Bills.
The Seahawks head to the City of Angels Sunday for a big NFC West showdown with the Rams that could flip the standings on their ear, especially if the Cardinals fall short again.
Chicago and Minnesota play a pivotal Monday night NFC North matchup that could point the way to both of their playoff futures, with the Bears looking to end their skid and the Vikings hoping to continue their upswing.