Saturday of conference tournament week presents us with 15 championship games and a handful of semifinal matchups that sets us up for a wild sports betting weekend.
Tickets to the 2021 NCAA Tournament will be punched over the next 48 hours and we aren’t going to be moving from our couches.
Here are a few plays I have for Saturday’s card.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Illinois (-4, 156.5) vs. Iowa - 3:25 PM EST
The Illini are one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 11 of their last 12, and a matchup nightmare for the Hawkeyes.
I’m not sure how Iowa is going to contain the dynamic playmaking of Illinois guard Ayo Dosunmu.
While he is a dynamic scoring threat, he’s also a fine passer, second in Big Ten play in assist rate. He’s going to be able to beat Iowa defenders off the dribble and either finish inside or find an open teammate from deep. As a team, Illinois is 21st in the country in three-point percentage.
Much has been made about the improved Iowa defense, but I’m still not buying it. Michigan was able to poke holes through their defense on February 25th that led to a 22-point victory.
On the defensive end, Illinois should be able to keep a lid on the Hawkeye perimeter attack. The team is inside the nation’s top 40 in opponent three-point rate and I expect them to force Iowa guards inside the arc and let them do their work with two’s rather than three’s.
I’ll take my chances with the more complete offense.
Don’t sleep on the rebounding differential either. Illinois is 13th in limiting second chances and 33rd in generating them. In a high scoring game, extra possessions may be the difference.
Pick: Illinois -4
Western Kentucky (+1, 128.5) vs. North Texas - 9 PM EST
Charles Bassey took over the Hilltoppers semifinal game against UAB and propelled them to a win and a date with North Texas with a ticket to the NCAA Tournament on the line, going for 22 points and four blocks.
Bassey is going to be the best player on the floor and I expect him to have another big showing on Saturday night. The ‘Toppers are 22nd in defensive two-point percentage and the big man is 10th in the country in national block rate. Against a North Texas team that isn’t so three happy, right below the national average, Bassey is going to be a thorn in the opposition’s side.
North Texas is going to try and slow this game to a snail’s pace, they are 314th in the country in adjusted tempo per KenPom, but also are a turnover generating defense. Rick Stansburry’s Hilltoppers are going to need to minimize mistakes to get the job done tonight, which isn't always a given for a sometimes sloppy offense -- see 16 turnovers against UAB Friday.
In a game that is being lined as a near-toss up, I believe WKU should be favored, generating some value. The Mean Green are playing their fourth game in four nights and run a pretty thin bench, only six players played meaningful minutes on Friday. I’m counting on some tired legs with a trip to the Dance on the line.
Also, North Texas has been running great on perimeter defense. In their three games in the C-USA Tournament, teams are shooting 30% from three. Western Kentucky is a fine three-point shooting team, over 37% in league play, and I expect some regression coming for a weary Mean Green team.
Pick: Western Kentucky +1, play to PK
UC-Santa Barbara (-3, 126.5) vs. UC-Irvine 11:30 PM EST
Another one of my mid-major darlings from a few weeks ago.
Joe Pasternak has been building the UC-Santa Barbara program for this moment. In his fourth season as coach, the Gauchos have won 20 games each year after winning just six the year before he took over. However, the NCAA Tournament has eluded them.
Tonight, they punch a ticket to their first Tournament since 2011.
Santa Barbara dropped their two matchups to Irvine back in December, but this is a different team now, dropping just one game since.
Both teams are outside the top 200 in national adjusted temp, so expect a rock fight, but the edge here is along the perimeter.
UC-Irvine’s defense is predicated around shutting down the interior, top five this season in opponent two-point percentage, but that leads to them giving up a high number of three’s, bottom 50 in opponent three-point rate.
UC-Santa Barbara has capable three-point shooters with three key rotation players shooting over 35% from beyond the arc. They can make the Anteater defense pay and make it tough for UC-Irvine to stay close, who shoot around 33% from deep as a team.
This feels like the Gauchos time. While I expect a close one, I’m willing to lay the three points with a strong free throw shooting team in UCSB, over 76% as a team on the year.
Pick: UC-Santa Barbara -3
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.