We all want to cash a ticket on a big betting underdog in March. Before we find our ‘Cinderella’ in the NCAA Tournament, let's see if we can find a team further down the odds board to win their conference tournament outright.
Mountain West Conference Tournament - Nevada +2500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
I wrote about the four state schools who have ruled the MWC this season, but Nevada has been a thorn in the side of those four for much of the season.
Steve Alford’s Wolfpack lost two competitive games at San Diego State earlier in the year by a combined seven points, and they swept Boise State at home.
The team did lose both games on the road to Utah State, but they were able to beat Colorado State this past weekend by three.
Nevada is paced by Wichita State transfer guard Grant Sherfield and a reliable offense. The Pack lead the MWC in free throw rate and are in the top half of the conference in three-point percentage on steady volume.
The spot for a run seems to set up nicely for Nevada, who has hung tough with the elite of the conference. All the pressure is on Boise State, their first round matchup.
Between Boise, Utah, and Colorado, who all need to perform well in the tournament to secure a spot in the field of 68, Nevada is playing with house money.
Nevada would likely have to beat San Diego State in the semifinals along the way, but I think it’s worth a shot at +2500 for the Pack to continue playing spoiler.
SEC Tournament - LSU +700 (FanDuel)
Things broke nicely for LSU in the final week of the season, as the team was able to grab the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament and get a double bye.
On top of that, if LSU can win their first round matchup, they will face an Arkansas team they fared much better against than No. 1 seed Alabama.
LSU split their two matchups with the Hogs, blowing them out in January by 16 and losing a tight game on the road, an 83-75 Arkansas victory.
The Tigers do struggle on the defensive end, but their offense is one of the most proficient in the country, No. 5 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency numbers. Led by freshman Cameron Thomas, the Tigers can get hot in a tournament setting such as this.
The draw is as favorable as LSU can ask for, and I think a semifinal matchup can be a great upset spot for them against a hot Arkansas team that may run out of gas after winning eight in a row.
Big 12 Tournament - Oklahoma +5000 (DraftKings)
I know that the market has pushed away from the Sooners, but this price is way off. Oklahoma is playing on day one of the tournament after losing their last four games, one of which was a roadie to 8-19 Kansas State.
However, the draw is as good as it can be for OU. If the team avoids a disastrous loss to Iowa State, the team will face Kansas, who they beat twice this season.
A win there, then the team will face either Texas, who they lost to by four last week after beating the short handed Longhorns last month, or Texas Tech, who they lost to twice by a combined seven points.
If the Sooners get hot in Kansas City, they have shown the ability to hang with the top of the Big 12. If a few bounces went their way over the last few weeks, the Sooners could have been as high as the two seed in the Big 12 tournament.
Not to mention this is an attractive long shot price on the opposite side of Baylor, who they can prolong a meeting with until the finals, if ever.
Austin Reaves has been a steadying force for the Sooners and this is still a strong team, 37th in KenPom’s ranking. An extra game in the tournament against a bottom feeder is driving this price, but that’s an overrated narrative.
Boomer!