We are in for a treat tonight, as we get a glorious 11-game NBA slate. That means there's a ton of players to choose from in the player prop pool. There are a couple of ESPN games tonight, so I’ll go with Celtics- Milwaukee as today’s marquee game. Milwaukee is favored by 6 points and the total is set to 230, so we will see plenty of points scored.
As for today’s best NBA bets, player props are a fun way to wager on NBA games even if you don't like a side or total. I like to find matchups that I can exploit or good situations due to injuries.
Let’s dive into a couple of these scenarios now.
Maximilian Kleber OVER 8.5 points
Kleber’s pairing with Luka Doncic has been fun to watch this season. He comes into this game averaging 9.9 points per game (PPG) over his last ten games and 11.3 over his last three.
Kleber gets a great matchup tonight against a Minnesota team that is in the bottom five of mostly all key defensive metrics. The Timberwolves rank 28th in points allowed and 26th in defensive rating.
The total for the game is set to 231, which means we will see a lot of buckets. I have Kleber getting at least double digits tonight, so I like this number.
Darius Garland UNDER 1.5 made threes
Garland comes into the matchup averaging 1.7 made threes a game on 4.4 attempts. He doesn’t take a lot of threes and Chicago is ranked 3rd in both three-pointers allowed and opponent’s three-point percentage.
This should be a closer game than most expect, so I don’t envision a lot of chasing points in the fourth quarter. This is strictly a matchup play.
Donovan Mitchell UNDER 26.5 points
Mitchell comes into the matchup averaging 25.4 PPG. While I’m a big fan, I’m on the under here for a couple of reasons.
He’s been on a heater lately, so this number is a little inflated. Also, the game script bodes well for this mark, as this game should be a blowout against the undermanned Nets tonight. There’s a good chance Spida sits a lot of the fourth quarter.
Mike Conley and some of the bench guys have been contributing heavily to the offense, which should help keep this number intact.
Unless Mitchell goes off from three-point land, I see him going under this mark tonight.
BetQL Model Pick
The model has a five-star play on Grayson Allen UNDER 10.5 points tonight. Allen and Memphis face-off against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.
Click here to check out all of the model's projections for tonight.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook