The SEC has been dominated by Alabama for much of the 2020-2021 season, but Arkansas is making a late push and figures to be a contender come March.
This is not a typical year for the Southeastern conference. Kentucky is usually at the top of the standings, but they have struggled all season, sitting at .500 in conference play and below that overall on the year.
The league is not as deep as the Big Ten or the Big 12, but is providing tough outs every which way, here’s how they stack up this season:
*Auburn does not have National Title odds because they are serving a one-year ban from the NCAA Tournament.
The bracketology column is courtesy of Lukas Harkins latest bracketology post from February 23rd.
Alabama Crimson Tide
As mentioned earlier, the SEC runs through Alabama this season. The Tide are 29th in offensive efficiency and bolster the fourth best defense in the nation, according to KenPom.
Nate Oats club plays fast and aggressive, the ninth quickest pace in the country. This offense has the ability to go for 100 on any given night, but that has also gotten the team into some trouble. With a top-20 three-point rate, Alabama can either look like world beaters, or a dysfunctional bunch.
With the likes of John Petty and Josh Primo, the Tide have deadly shooters, but when the team has gone cold from deep, it has struggled to generate consistent offense. In their five losses this season, Alabama has shot a combined 28% from beyond the arc.
With that being said, it has been the defense that has paved the way for the Tide to be a top 10 team this season. The defense has the lowest three-point rate in SEC play and is inside the top 50 in national steal percentage. In most cases, the Tide are just too explosive to keep up with.
The Crimson Tide are legit, and can be a force if the three-point shot is falling. At +2000, the price seems right to invest in an Alabama future as they are set to be a No. 2 seed, with an outside chance at grabbing that last No. 1 seed.
A +350 price to make the Final Four is also an intriguing bet as they are going to be favored in likely every game ahead of an Elite Eight matchup.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas knocked off Alabama Wednesday night at home, and the two have been the class of the SEC in 2021.
The two actually profile very similarly, playing an up-tempo and physical game.
Arkansas plays at the 30th fastest pace in the country but are not as three-point reliant as the Crimson Tide.
The team is outside the top 200 in three-point rate on offense but are capable from deep. Four rotation players hit on greater than 33% of their perimeter shots. This is a balanced offensive attack, the team is 30th in KemPom’s offensive efficiency metric, but it all is centered around freshman Moses Moody.
Moody is set to be a lottery pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, and leads the Razorbacks in offensive rating. A 37% shooter from deep as well as a regular at the free throw line where he shoots 82%. Moody can make some noise in March.
It’s all starting to click for Arkansas, who may be peaking at the right time. This is a great time to get down on a +50000 future on the Hogs; oddsmakers may be slow to catch this team on the rise.
Arkansas has a rock solid resume with no losses to teams outside the KenPom top 50, which can pay dividends during the seeding process on Selection Sunday. A favorable seed as well as great play can make the Hogs a dangerous team when the bracket is set.
Tennessee Volunteers
Sometimes, it’s fair to wonder if Tennessee is the best team in this conference, like when they boat raced Kansas by 19 at home in late January. There are also times when the offense is missing in action, highlighted by a 70-55 loss to Kentucky last weekend.
Rick Barnes put together a formidable roster in Knoxville this season with returning forwards Yves Pons and John Fulkerson joining forces with five-star recruits Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer. However, it just has not clicked on the offensive end.
The Vols are 76th in the country in offensive efficiency, which is weighing down their third rated defense, per KenPom.
Despite leading the SEC in assist percentage and free throw rate, Rocky Top’s offense is hit or miss. The Vols are not built to come from behind due to their low three-point rate, 270th in the country and lack a go-to threat with neither Johnson or Springer realizing their potential on a nightly basis.
When the defense is on, top 20 in national turnover and block rate, a bogged down style works, but when the team needs to get points up fast, they struggle.
Time is running out on Tennessee, who have been too inconsistent for my liking.
At +3500, the price is too short on the Vols given their resume. In a six-game tournament format, I would much rather have a team like Arkansas, who can get reliable offense across the rotation to make a run.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
