The 2021 NFL Draft is drawing closer with the first round on April 29th.
Sportsbooks are going to continue releasing more and more odds on draft props over the next three weeks, and there are now a flush set of props focused around if a player will go in the Top 10.
Here are the odds for a handful, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
There is somewhat of an art to betting NFL Draft props. Reading mock drafts, following beat reporters on Twitter, tracking the smoke of if a team likes a certain player is all imperative to gaining an edge in this market.
As we go further into the Draft, there is more variance involved as teams deviate from the norm, but one player has been mocked to go inside the top 10 in many mock draft and is arguably the best defensive prospect in the class.
Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II was SEC Defensive Player of the Year and the son of former NFL cornerback Patrick Surtain Sr. He's a shutdown corner that will start in Week 1, and I don't envision he lasts very long on the board.
ESPN’s Matt Miller stated on Thursday he thinks Surtain will be the first defensive player off the board on April 29th, and some possible landing spots for him.
“I think it would probably be Patrick Surtain II from Alabama,” Miller said. “He’s got NFL bloodlines and he’s got some very good ones, so I think he is probably the odds-on favorite right now to be the first defender selected. That would be No. 8 with Carolina, Denver (at No. 9) really short up there in the secondary even with getting Kyle Fuller in free agency. But Dallas at No. 10 has seemed like a very good spot for Surtain.”
The Cowboys picking at 10 does feel like the most likely landing spot, and a great floor to have if one were to bet this prop.
Dallas has offensive weapons all over after re-signing Dak Presscot and spending a first round pick on receiver Ceedee Lamb last year. Surtain is a can’t miss prospect that would give an instant boost to a rebuilding Cowboys defense.
Looking at the odds, Surtain is -112 to go 10th or better, which translates to just short of a 53% implied probability. With his floor likely at 10 as well as other options ahead of Dallas, the price is short at this point in time.
Let’s get ahead of the tailwinds before this market heats up and get down this cheap price on Surtain. This number is only going to grow as we get closer to the first night of the NFL Draft.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.