Week 16 in the NFL is upon us and the betting markets have tightened. It’s becoming more and more difficult for us, the bettor, to contrive some value from the lines, but there are two intriguing underdogs that jump off the page early in the week.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5, +110) - December 26
I have not been overly impressed with Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins of late. What was once a feel good team that was playing above expectation has become one of the luckiest squads in all of football.
The Dolphins have the fourth highest turnover differential in the league, which is masking a defense that ranks 24th in yards per play. Even though anyone in the league can attack this Raiders defense, the Dolphins’ offense is down some of its best weapons: DaVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki all sat out Sunday’s win over the New England Patriots.
On a short week, the game is being played Saturday night. who knows if we will see any of the three. I’d advise keeping an eye on the injury report to see if any of the key players are on track to play come Saturday. The trio has combined for more than 50% of the Dolphins receiving touchdowns and yards in 2020.
Brian Flores and co. were able to scratch out a win over the Patriots, but against a Vegas offense that can move the ball with either Derek Carr or Marcus Mariotta under center, there is value in the home dog catching points on primetime.
Tennessee Titans (+4, +155) at Green Bay Packers - December 27
Another primetime dog here. While bettors may flock to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in this spot, the value lies with Tennessee. These two are very similar to one another. Neither has much of a defense, and each side has plenty of offense.
Tennessee has struggled to get pressure on the quarterback all season, posting an adjusted sack rate of 38%, according to Football Outsiders, the worst mark in the league heading into Week 15. The unit won’t bother Rodgers much in this one.
On the other side, Green Bay is one of the worst teams at stopping the run. The unit has allowed a running back success rate of 57% this season, towards the bottom of the league, and does not do a good job putting teams behind the sticks, allowing a first down pass success rate of over 58%. If the Titans are able to control the down and distance and let running back Derrick Henry cook, this can be a game that becomes who has the ball last.
The last piece to this handicap is that Green Bay does not look right and has benefitted from a very easy schedule. Since losing badly to Tampa Bay on October 18, the Packers have played one team currently projected to be in the postseason, a November 22 overtime loss to the Colts.
Green Bay may seem like the class of the NFC right now, but the team has benefitted from an easy schedule and the Titans will come in and adjust the perception. I have Green Bay as just a 2-point favorite in this one, so I see value in taking the underdog Titans on SNF.
