Rob Gronkowski is one of the few players in the league that doesn’t play quarterback but is recognized by everyone.
The three-time Super Bowl champion is back in the big game, but his role has transformed since his prior appearances. Gronk came out of retirement this season to join Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, catching 45 passes for 623 yards and seven touchdowns.
However, in the postseason, Gronk’s usage as a pass catcher has evaporated and he has been used much more as a blocker. He has two catches for 43 yards on seven targets in three playoff games.
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Many are going to flock to bet on the charismatic tight end going over his totals, but the BetQL Model sees value in fading Gronk come Sunday.
Rob Gronkowski Under 2.5 receptions (DraftKings) - 2 stars
Rob Gronkowski Under 29.5 receiving yards (DraftKings) - 3 Stars
Brady has been looking at fellow tight end Cameron Brate quite a bit in the postseason, targeting him 16 times in the three postseason games. Expect that trend to continue Sunday, as Gronk is used more in pass protection.
It’s worth mentioning that Brate showed up on the Tampa Bay injury report on Thursday. The team listed him as a limited participant with a back injury, so that is something to monitor ahead of kickoff. Brate is still likely to play and have a big role but if he were to miss the game due to injury, Gronk’s usage would obviously spike.
Assuming Brate plays, Gronk’s role in the passing game should remain limited. While he was able to take a tight end screen for 29 yards in the NFC championship game, that was his only target.
BetQL is not buying that Gronk is going to see increased targets because this is the Super Bowl. The BetQL Model is fading an inflated market, going under on Gronkowski’s reception and yardage props.
At some shops, Gronk has a higher receiving total than Brate, which seems incorrect. Going over on Brate’s props is the way to go.
The smarter way to play Gronk is to take him to score on Sunday. The Bucs may use him in some sort of trick play to get him open near the goal line, especially considering his chemistry with Brady.
Gronkowski is +175 to score a touchdown. It’s not the juiciest payout, but I’d count on one catch in the end zone rather than three throughout the game.
When it comes to Gronk’s other props, play the under. BetQL is only projecting him to have two catches for 20 yards. He’s being overvalued in the betting market because the casual fan will bet the over on a big name player like Gronk for the Super Bowl.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.