Manny Machado, Rafael Devers and Yu Darvish -- who had previously been among the top potential free agents next winter -- have all signed long-term deals that will allow them to stay with their current teams. With that trio out of the picture, here's an updated look at the top 10 potential free agents in the 2023-24 offseason:
1. Shohei Ohtani: DH/RHP
Shohei Ohtani can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: .273/.356/.519 with 34 home runs, 95 RBIs, 72 walks, .875 OPS and 3.8 WAR ... 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA, 2.40 FIP and 5.6 WAR across 166 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 29
The only question with Ohtani is how long can he continue to be the greatest two-way superstar that baseball has ever seen. In 2021, he hit 46 home runs and won the American League MVP. In 2022, he finished second in AL MVP voting and fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting. He's an international fan-favorite that seems unlikely to remain with the Los Angeles Angels beyond 2023. His free agent stint will be one of the most interesting that we've ever seen.
2. Aaron Nola: RHP
Aaron Nola can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Casey Sykes/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP and 6.3 WAR across 205 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 31
Nola rebounded from a disappointing 2021 season to post a 6.3 WAR in 2022, which FanGraphs says was the top mark among all qualified starting pitchers. Since the start of the 2018 season, Nola leads all pitchers with 871 2/3 innings pitched. The former first-round pick has never been reliant on overpowering hitters, so he should age in a Zack Greinke-esque manner. In mid-February, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the Phillies and Nola's representatives have discussed a long-term contract extension. Until that gets done, though, Nola looks like the top free agent option outside of Ohtani.
3. Julio Urías: LHP
Julio Urias can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(John McCoy/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 17-7 with a 2.16 ERA, 3.71 FIP and 3.2 WAR across 175 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 27
Urías' traditional numbers may have painted a better picture of his 2022 season than more advanced statistics, but there's no question he's developed into one of the best lefties in the game. Urías already has extended postseason experience and two top 10 NL Cy Young finishes on his resume, so we'll see whether or not the Los Angeles Dodgers even allow him to reach free agency.
4. Max Scherzer: RHP
Max Scherzer can become a free agent next offseason.
(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA, 2.62 FIP and a 4.4 WAR across 145 1/3 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 39
Our initial inclination is to think that Scherzer won't opt out of making $43.3 million in 2024, the final year of a lucrative three-year deal with the New York Mets. But this is one of the greatest businessmen in the history of the sport, and he just watched the Mets give Justin Verlander a gigantic multi-year contract ahead of his age-40 season. If Scherzer has another excellent season, why wouldn't he opt out and look for at least two guaranteed years?
5. Matt Chapman: 3B
Matt Chapman can become a free agent next offseason.
(Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: .229/.324/.433 with 27 home runs, 76 RBIs, 68 walks, .757 OPS and a 4.1 WAR
Age in 2024: 31
Chapman isn't going to hit for a high batting average, but his mix of power production and excellent defense should make him a coveted option in free agency next winter. One thing worth noting is that Chapman was an all-time defender during his five seasons with the Oakland Athletics, winning two Platinum Glove Awards. But after posting 10 defensive runs saved and 17 outs above average in his final season with the A's, Chapman posted two defensive runs saved and one out above average in his first season with the Blue Jays. That's still above-average glovework, but he could increase his value heading into free agency with another Gold Glove-caliber season.
6. Lucas Giolito: RHP
Lucas Giolito can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 1.8 WAR across 161 2/3 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 29
Giolito had a disappointing 2022 season, but between 2019 and 2021, he finished seventh in WAR among all pitchers, per FanGraphs. We expect a bounce-back season from Giolito in 2023, which will make him a coveted arm next winter given that he's on the right side of 30.
7. Blake Snell: LHP
Blake Snell can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA, 2.80 FIP and 3.7 WAR across 128 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 31
Snell struggled in his first season in San Diego, but the former AL Cy Young Award winner bounced back nicely in 2022. While he's not necessarily a workhorse, contenders will be intrigued by Snell as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter -- and a left-handed one at that -- if he reaches the open market next winter.
8. Luis Severino: RHP
Luis Severino can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 3.70 FIP and 1.4 WAR across 102 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 30
Severino was an All-Star in both 2017 and 2018, before Tommy John surgery cost him the better part of the next three seasons. Even in 2022, Severino only made 19 starts, but he had a generally strong showing in his most extended action in years. If he's able to throw 170+ innings in 2023, he will set himself up well for free agency.
9. Teoscar Hernández: OF
Teoscar Hernandez can become a free agent next offseason.
(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: .267/.316/.491 with 25 home runs, 77 RBIs, 34 walks, .807 OPS and a 2.4 WAR
Age in 2024: 31
The Mariners were the beneficiaries of a desire in Toronto to move George Springer out of center field, acquiring one of the better hitting corner outfielders in the game currently in Hernández. Between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Hernández posted an .882 OPS. If he can recapture that form in 2023, he could very well be looking at five years next winter in free agency.
10. Rhys Hoskins: 1B/DH
Rhys Hoskins can become a free agent next offseason.
(Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: .246/.332/.462 with 30 home runs, 79 RBIs, 72 walks, .794 OPS and a 2.2 WAR
Age in 2024: 31
While the Phillies haven't been shy about their desire to retain the aforementioned Nola, they've been less committal on Hoskins. That's not to say that the Phillies won't end up re-signing him, they have spoken extensively about the fondness that the organization has for Hoskins, whom Bryce Harper affectionately referred to as "The Captain" last postseason. But this is a team with a ton of DH-types, and Hoskins is probably best-suited to be there, rather than first base. And with Scott Boras as his agent, Hoskins is likely to at least test the open market.
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