Part 1: players 11-20
Part 2: players 6-10
Part 3: players 1-5
So, this is an exercise I've performed for at least the last 12-13 years and while it's mostly just for fun, I do have a background evaluating and ranking prospects back in the day. I haven't done it "for real" since about 2009 but back in the day wrote about prospects for Diamond Libraries publications and for The Sporting News.
I don't do this as well as people who do it full-time and I'm not trying to sell myself as the prospects version of Nostradamus, I'm just having a little fun look at what's coming down the pike in the Cardinals' system. Today I'm posting prospects 11-20 and then over the next couple of days I'll go a little deeper on the Top 10 with 6-10 Thursday and 1-5 on Friday...
Also, please keep in mind that I value production at the higher levels as much as I value the "upside" of a teenage prospect. More often than not younger prospects have some helium because we haven't seen their flaws against older/better competition. I use a sliding scale factoring both age and production. Those who produce at higher levels at younger ages are the players I value the most.
Here we go.
20. Levi Prater, LHP
This is a bit of projection since he had significant control problems in 2021 (68 BB in 68.3 IP at Low-A) but he misses a lot of bats (104 K, 13.7 K/9) and that's a trait he possessed in college as well. Prater isn't a hard thrower but there's more than one way to strike people out. If he cuts back on the walks it wouldn't surprise me if the 22 year-old 3rd rounder out of the University of Oklahoma jumps a couple of levels in 2022.
19. Tre Fletcher, OF
Another projection play here. Fletcher has elite tools - power, speed and arm strength to be specific - and that's why he's in my Top 20. Even though he'll turn 21 in April he's got a long way to go, having played just 7 games in Rookie ball in 2021, but I just can't ignore the talent.
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18. Edwin Nunez, RHP
More projection! He appeared in 32 games for Low-A Palm Beach in 2021 and posted a 10.90 ERA (!!!) as a 19 year-old. The problem was command as he walked 56 batters in 53.7 IP. That's a lot. So why is he here? Because he throws 100 MPH and still has some filling out to do at 6'3" 185. There is a lot of development left to do here but the Cardinals' track record with developing pitching speaks for itself.
17. Delvin Perez, SS
Perez put himself back in the mix in 2021 but I'm still worried about the bat. A .661 OPS at Double-A as a 22 year-old isn't terrible and doesn't mean he won't hit at all in the future, it just means that he's still got a lot of work to do. He's gotten stronger, as he showed in Spring Training last year, but he doesn't have power. He is an outstanding fielder with a strong arm and excellent speed, however, so if he doesn't get a lot better offensively he could still be a valuable bench player in the big leagues someday. If he is even a league average hitter he should become an everyday player.
16. Luken Baker, 1B
Baker is a true power prospect. At 6'4" and listed at 280 pounds you can see why that is. In 2021 he finally got to that power in game action, hitting 26 HR in just 91 games at Double-A Springfield before appearing in 2 games at Triple-A. That's a 40 homer pace projected out over 140 games. He strikes out a good bit and is probably limited to 1B given his size but he's someone to keep an eye on.
15. Angel Rondon, RHP
Rondon struggled with the longball at Triple-A Memphis in 2021 (15 HR allowed in just 76.7 IP) but he has a good arm and he just turned 24 so he has plenty of time to make adjustments. We saw him very briefly in the Majors last season (2 IP in 2 G) and I suspect we'll see more of him in 2022 as an in-season call-up. Rondon can definitely start but the fastball might play up a bit in a relief role too so it will be interesting to see what he does in Spring Training.
14. Andre Pallante, RHP
The 2019 4th rounder flew under the radar coming into 2021 but he made a big impression by spending most of his first full pro season at Double-A Springfield where he posted a 3.82 ERA in 21 starts. He followed the regular season with a really good showing in the Arizona Fall League (1.29 ERA in 21 IP). Pallante can touch 100 MPH with the fastball and he has a well-rounded repertoire as well. Wouldn't shock me if we saw him in the Majors in 2022.
13. Tink Hence, RHP
By the end of 2022 this ranking could look a bit low. Hence is a tremendous talent who throws in the mid 90's with good overall pitchability. He won't turn 20 until August so the Cardinals will likely continue to be conservative with his advancement though it wouldn't surprise me if he came out strong and forced his way up the ladder a bit. There's a lot we don't know about Hence because he only has 8 pro innings under his belt but what we do know is pretty exciting.
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12. Joshua Baez, OF
Baez, the Cardinals 2nd rounder in 2021, is an elite power prospect who had signed to play at Vanderbilt before ultimately deciding to sign with the Cardinals after the draft. Despite just turning 18 in June, Baez is already 6'4" and 220 pounds and is known for his prodigious power. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle him in 2022. Will he get thrown into the fire at Low-A Palm Beach like Winn and Jordan Walker did in 2021 or will they be more conservative? Obviously that all depends on what he shows them but long term he has the look of a future Top 5 prospect in the organization.
11. Masyn Winn, SS
As with Hence, this ranking of Winn could end up being too low. He's immensely talented having been a 2-way prospect coming into the 2020 draft as both a SS and a RHP with a mid-90's fastball. Needless to say he has one of the best arms of any position player in all of minor league baseball. The question with Winn has nothing to do with his talent, he's loaded with that, it's about whether or not he will hit at a high level. Splitting the year between Low-A Palm Beach and High-A Peoria as a 19 year-old in 2021 showed he has legit potential with the bat, though he did struggle at High-A (which was to be expected). If it doesn't work out long term for Winn as a SS he could easily jump back on the mound.