Part 1: players 11-20
Part 2: players 6-10
Part 3: players 1-5
ST. LOUIS (KMOX) - Alright, wrapping up my Top 20 for 2022 with this one!
One more time...my overall philosophy for ranking prospects in this Top 20 is as much about where things are now as where they will be five years from now. That means that while I do care about upside (as you'll see in the Top 5), it's not all I care about. Production at the higher levels and proximity to the Major Leagues has something to do with where I place players. As I said before, it's a sliding scale between "talent" and "performance" with the guys at the top ideally combining those things somewhat equally.
Here we go:
5. Juan Yepez, 1B
Before 2021 I'm not sure many people would have referred to Yepez as a "prospect." That was largely because he was seen as a good hitter with power potential who never got to that power in games. Between 2015-2019 Yepez hit 26 HR combined in 364 games. That's not a lot. Well, in 2021 he hit 27 HR in 111 games (22 of them at Triple-A Memphis) and then proceeded to be one of the 2-3 best hitters in the Arizona Fall League, hitting 7 more HR in 23 games. In total that's 34 HR in 134 games to go with a strong batting average (.289), on base percentage (.383) and strikeout rate (19.6%).
So...he made contact, hit for power and got on base a lot and he did that as a 23 year-old, so an appropriate age for the levels he played at. He's had some experience at 3B and in the OF as well as playing 1B as his primary position and those things, along with the potential arrival of the DH, could help him earn a legit role with the Cardinals in 2022.
4. Ivan Herrera, C
Herrera is a 2-way catching prospect who still has some growing to do as a defender though he's made strides the last couple of years and is certainly capable behind the plate. He's not Yadier Molina defensively but then again nobody really is.
That said, Herrera is also young and has competed at an advanced level for his age. He spent most of 2021 at Double-A Springfield despite the fact that he didn't turn 21 until June so he's definitely ahead of the game. Despite being on the young side of the league, Herrera put up pretty solid offensive numbers (.745 OPS, 17 HR in 99 G) and has a chance to be a 20 HR guy in the Majors. He's also shown strong on-base skill, walking enough to put his on-base percentage 113 points above his batting average (which is really good).
We may see him some with the Cardinals in 2022 but it looks like he'll spend most of the year at Memphis comparing for a significant role in the Majors in 2023 alongside Andrew Knizner.
3. Matthew Liberatore, LHP
Liberatore, who didn't turn 22 until November, spent the 2021 season at Triple-A Memphis despite the fact that he'd never pitched about Low-A ball before. In fact, Liberatore has still only thrown 235 2/3 innings in his minor league career (only 111 IP before 2021) so there's a lot of room for growth. He's a 6'4" lefty who can reach the mid-90's with his fastball though his curve is seen by many as his best pitch.
The bottom line is that Liberatore has a solid 4-pitch mix and even though he struggled early at Memphis he finished strong and should be a potential option for the Cardinals at the Major League level in 2022. The main thing left for him to do is to build up to a Major League starter's workload, which is what I suspect he'll do at Memphis this season. Liberatore has a high ceiling and a high floor, in my opinion. Best case, he's a top of the rotation guy. Worst case, he's a solid 4th starter. Either way he's a Major League starting pitcher.
2. Jordan Walker, 3B
When the Cardinals drafted Walker 21st overall in 2020 everyone knew he was extremely gifted and that he had real power potential but I'm not sure anyone knew he was going to be as advanced as he showed he was in 2021. Despite not turning 19 until May, Walker was extremely productive playing full season ball despite being among the youngest players in either league he appeared in.
Combined between Low-A Palm Beach and High-A Peoria he hit .317 with 25 doubles and 14 homers...in just 82 games. That's astounding. He struck out a bit but certainly not a rate that would cause any real concern and he also swiped 14 bases. Whether he stays at 3B or not has something to do with whether or not Nolan Arenado opts out of his contract at the end of 2022 but he has the talent to move around because he moves well for a 6"5" 220 pounder and has outstanding arm strength. If he doesn't end up at 3B he could easily find a home in RF, LF or 1B.
Another year like he just had could vault Walker into the conversation for one of the 3-4 top position players in all of minor league baseball. He has the look of a 30+ HR hitter in the Major Leagues...someday.
1. Nolan Gorman, 2B
Gorman made a nice transition to 2B in 2021 and even more impressive than that move from 3B to 2B was the fact that it didn't impact his offensive production. The move to second went well enough for John Mozeliak to mention at the Winter Meetings in November that infield guru Jose Oquendo told him Gorman would be "an above average defensive second baseman." So that sounds good. Gorman hit 20 doubles and 25 HR in 119 games combined between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. He provided all that power without striking out too much (22%) as well, which is encouraging since he's been known more for his power than his status as a pure hitter.
Did I mention he did all of that despite not turning 21 until May? Gorman is right at the doorstep of the Majors and it seems very likely that we'll see him in the Majors at some point in 2022. He and Walker give the Cardinals two potential middle of the order bats at the top of the system, something I can't remember this team having at any point the last 15 years.
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