If you’re looking to bet some football this weekend, there are a pair of value bets to hone in on. Let’s kick it off on the college football card -- with the Indiana Hoosiers currently listed as a 7.5-point favorite at Michigan State on Saturday.
The Hoosiers rank just outside the bottom-30 in offensive yards per play (4.9 YPP) across FBS, but they’ve racked up outright wins in each of their first three games, in large part because of turnover margin (+6), placing third in that department.
Keep in mind, turnovers aren’t predictive of short- nor long-term success. In the NFL, the New England Patriots were a prime example of that last season, boasting the second-most takeaways per game (2.2) despite losing four of their final six games.
While Michigan State slots into the bottom-10 of turnover margin (minus-2.3 per game) -- that’s an inflated number after seven giveaways in their season-opening loss to Rutgers. Expect Spartans quarterback Rocky Lombardi and his offense to bounce back after generating just 4.0 yards per play in their 49-7 loss at Iowa last weekend.
Moreover, this matchup represents the ideal look-ahead spot with No. 10 Indiana set to face off against No. 3 Ohio State in Columbus next Saturday. Tom Allen’s unit could be caught napping against a MSU team averaging just 0.27 points per play. I’ll be backing Sparty.
Another team to sell-high on comes via the NFL -- with the New Orleans Saints laying 10 points at home to the San Francisco 49ers.
New Orleans is coming off its 38-3 drubbing of Tampa Bay on Sunday night, setting up a letdown spot versus a San Francisco bunch that suffered a 17-point loss to Green Bay in Week 9.
The Saints’ Super Bowl futures dropped from 14-1 to 7-1 after their latest win, so the betting market couldn’t be higher on a team that’s tallied the fifth-highest net yards per play (0.7) across the league.
Even with 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel (hamstring) likely out, the 49ers are getting left tackle Trent Williams -- the No. 1 rate tackle on Pro Football Focus -- back in the lineup. San Francisco should have more success on the ground than last week’s performance (3.2 yards per rush attempt) as a result -- with tailbacks Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty likely carrying the load.
Don’t shy away from an inflated point spread just because the underdog is “bad.” Backing the Cowboys and signal caller Garrett Gilbert (+14) against the undefeated Steelers in Week 9 represented a similar instance. Try to shop around for a 49ers +10, though, if you haven’t found that price already.
BetQL has a 5 star pick on the 49ers-Saints game this Sunday. Get the data sportsbooks don't want you to know about. Sign up now to find winning bets at BetQL.
You can listen to all of our best bets for this weekend on the “Bet Sweats” podcast: