A trade down in the NFL Draft is a surefire attention grabber, especially if that team resides in the top-5. The idea of minimizing risk, while potentially maximizing value simultaneously, is a tantalizing option if a team doesn’t fall in love with a prospect. With the Atlanta Falcons sitting at a potential organizational crossroads, the odds of a trade exist until the draft card is submitted. When a franchise approaches this point, seemingly everyone has an opinion on the matter.
Media and fan speculation thrives in the uncertainty, but so too could the Falcons.
With so many options at the fourth pick, Atlanta finds itself in a rather advantageous situation. This year’s draft could be the perfect opportunity to draft Matt Ryan’s eventual replacement. Or, perhaps they could bolster any number of other positions with the likes of Penei Sewell, Kyle Pitts, Ja’Marr Chase, or Micah Parsons. Whether they would pursue any of the aforementioned prospects is beside the point. What’s important is that they could take any of these guys. They hold all the cards and Atlanta can float any rumor that they want. The more other teams sweat, the more they could offer up in a potential trade.
That makes Monday morning’s report from MMQB all the more interesting.
“Eyes are on Atlanta and Detroit now. The first three picks are spoken for. And that leaves the Falcons as a team to watch—one that’s going to have to make a decision on its pick with some complicated finances at quarterback (due to all Matt Ryan’s restructures), and a team in need of cheaper young talent with which to surround its core. My guess has been that the Falcons will stick at No. 4 and take a quarterback, because I don’t think they want to count on picking that high again and this happens to be a really strong year at the position. But I do know they’re open to the idea of trading the pick and have had exploratory talks with other teams on a deal that would have someone else moving up to No. 4...”
According to this report, Atlanta could be interested in trading back. If Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot see Matt Ryan sticking around, then the Falcons probably should trade back. With that said, “exploratory talks” certainly don’t guarantee anything, but it seems to me that the Falcons are waiting for their Don Corleone offer.
So what would it take for the Falcons to trade back? There is plenty of value to be gained for the Falcons, but clearly that depends on where said team is trading up from and who they could be targeting. Let’s take a look at what trading the No. 4 overall pick could net the Falcons by seeing what teams have offered up in the past.
2011 – Falcons trade up from No. 26 to No. 6 for Julio Jones
Here’s one that every Falcons fan should be familiar with. Back in 2011, Atlanta was fresh off a disappointing playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers. They wanted another playmaker to complement Roddy White, and they saw that in Julio. The Falcons were selecting in the bottom portion of the draft, so the price was steep. They ended up sending picks Nos. 26, 59, 124 in the 2011 draft and Nos. 22 and 118 in the 2012 draft for the No. 6 in 2011.
This year’s draft has similar top-end talent at the wide receiver position that could pique the interest of teams looking for a playmaker. The Bengals are positioned squarely behind the Falcons and they could be looking for a guy to help support the young Joe Burrow. Perhaps a team could make the push to jump them in line? Sure this is a steep price, but perhaps teams like Baltimore (No. 27) or Jacksonville (No. 25) want to acquire a Ja’Marr Chase-esque talent for their young quarterback. We see what that did for Atlanta, so perhaps a team could make a similar move.
2014 – Bills trade up from No. 9 to No. 4 for Sammy Watkins
The Buffalo Bills were fresh off selecting EJ Manuel, a player they believed would be their future franchise quarterback. They wanted to add a dynamic weapon for him on the outside, so the Bills traded up from No. 9 to No. 4 in 2014 for a pick swap and future first- and fourth-rounders.
This would be a far more likely scenario for a team to make a push up to No. 4 for a non-quarterback. Teams in the back half of the top-10 could be interested in players like Penei Sewell, one of the wide receivers, Micah Parsons, or Kyle Pitts. A pick swap and a fourth-plus a future first-rounder should be more than enough to make the trade.
2017 – Bears trade up from No. 3 to No. 2 for Mitchell Trubisky
This was a monumental trade by the Chicago Bears back in 2017 that serves as a perfect illustration of what a team will do for “their guy”. The Bears saw Trubisky as the future lynchpin of their franchise and sent the 49ers pick Nos. 3, 67, and 111 plus a 2018 third-round pick in exchange for the No. 2 pick. Keep in mind that that was what the Bears paid to move up only one slot. The Falcons could potentially be in a position to declare open season on the No. 4 pick and be on the receiving end of a bidding war.
Before you scoff and say, “No team would give up this sort of capital”, this is only one of many examples in recent years. In 2012, Washington effectively sold the farm to get RG3 by sending three first-round picks and a second to the Rams to move up four spots. In 2018, the Jets gave up two second-round picks and a future second-round pick to move up three spots with the Colts for Sam Darnold.
One thing we know for sure is that teams are willing to overpay for the guys they believe can be their future franchise quarterbacks.
I do understand the rationale that many fans and media members have: since the Falcons are here, why not just draft a quarterback now and figure the rest out later? That would be fine, except the “no-brainer” quarterbacks selected in the top-5 of drafts are anything but that. In fact, if you go back to 1999, only 1 of the 28 quarterbacks selected in the top five has ever led his team to a Super Bowl victory – Eli Manning, 14 of 28 have a losing record, and only two have an MVP (and one of those guys is currently under contract in Atlanta). That isn’t a lot of success for the “no-brainer”.
Now, if the Falcons fall in love with a certain prospect, then they should take him, I’m just not convinced that they’re to that point yet. With a roster in a state of flux and in need of starting talent, Atlanta could really benefit from acquiring more draft capital. This team needs help in the pass rush, the secondary, and on the offensive line. A trade back could help bolster these positions of need and give this roster some much-needed stability.
Ultimately, trading back in the draft is what I see the Falcons doing. Let Arthur Smith see what he can do to maximize Matt Ryan’s remaining years in Atlanta. He has already shown to be more than capable of doing so with a less talented quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. Ryan is still a high-level quarterback and there are talented pass-catchers to throw to. If the Falcons can add to the talent on defense and along the offensive line, they could back to competing sooner than you think.
