Every Christmas, the NBA puts out a strong schedule to showcase its best talents and pit the highest profile teams against one another. It’s even more interesting this season because it will be one of the first opportunities for us as viewers to see these teams in action with the NBA first tipping off on December 22.
Here’s a brief betting guide to get you ready for the day-long marathon of hoops. All lines are courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat (-4.5, 224.5) - ESPN
The Pelicans are a bit of a mystery as Zion Williamson enters his first healthy season in the NBA. The club hired former Heat coach Stan Van Gundy to man the sidelines and moved Jrue Holiday to Milwaukee in what became a four-team deal for a bevy of picks, veteran guard Eric Bledsoe, and big man Steven Adams.
The addition of Bledsoe and Adams is interesting as both may not be long-term fits next to Zion and recently extended wing Brandon Ingram, but defensively can help a team that struggled on that end last season. Zion showed he can take over on a limited sample size, and with Ingram becoming a lock to break 20 a night, this offense will fall into place around those two.
Miami proved its ability to be a contender in the East, but I lean with the Pelicans catching five points here. I think they are able to hang on the defensive end and keep this game close. I’d play New Orleans at +4.5, but expect Miami will take some money ahead of tip off as the home public play.
Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (-10, 232.5) - ABC
While Steph Curry does appear to be at full health after a few impressive preseason performances, I’m not sure what to make of the Warriors in 2020-2021.
Draymond Green is set to miss his second straight game to start the season for a Golden State team that struggled mightily in its opener against the Brooklyn Nets, losing 125-99. The Warriors looked out of sorts and now are traveling to Milwaukee to take on a Bucks team that also lost its opening game, a heartbreaking 122-121 loss to the Celtics, but should be a dominant force yet again in 2021.
The front office retooled the roster around Giannis Antetokounmpo by adding defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday and locked down the two-time reigning MVP to a supermax extension.
The Bucks have blowout potential in this spot against a Warriors team that is going to struggle to generate stops and has some heavy travel plans early on. Curry is back and could provide some fireworks, but this Warriors team looks like it is punching above its weight class. The opening line of -7.5 evaporated after the Warriors blowout loss, and now sits at -10.
I lean with Milwaukee but 10 is where I draw the line. A smart way to play the Bucks could be the team total over. 121.5 is sky high, but I do not see how the Warriors plan on slowing down this Milwaukee offense.
Brooklyn Nets (-3, 228.5) at Boston Celtics - ABC
This line opened with the Nets -1 in Boston, but subsequently moved between -2.5 and -3.5 after the Nets impressive opening night win.
While Boston was able to knock off Milwaukee on Wednesday, the Celtics are short handed and its depth could run into issues in this matchup. While the roster is anchored by two budding stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics lost Gordon Hayward to free agency. On top of that, Kemba Walker is set to be out for the first weeks of the season with lingering knee issues.
Brooklyn has its full cupboard of players and the early returns on the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving tandem is positive. However, this line creeping up towards -3 is a bit of an overreaction, and would not play the Nets at anything above -2.
I do think that the over presents some value in this one. Under new head coach Steve Nash and assistant Mike D’Antoni, Brooklyn seems to be a run and gun offense that no one in the league can slow down. At 228.5, this is a buy point for me and would play it to 230.
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-6, 227.5) - ABC/ESPN
I expect a lot of load managing on behalf of LeBron James and Anthony Davis this season after a bubble title and short offseason, but there’s no way they miss this one. With that being said, I find myself leaning with Dallas.
Luka Doncic won’t have Kristaps Porzingis alongside him, but the team did add Josh Richardson this offseason who has looked comfortable early on with the Mavs. Richardson should help out a Dallas defense that struggled last season to back up the team’s historic offense.
I like Dallas to hang around in this one. I’m not really sure what to expect from L.A., especially early on given the limited offseason and the burden of the bubble title run. The Lakers looked a little rusty in their opening loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. Give me the dog while we enjoy our Christmas dinner.
Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, 224) at Denver Nuggets - ESPN
The night cap features a rematch of the Western Conference Semifinals, where the Nuggets came back from down 3-1 to upset the Clippers. The Clips started their season with an impressive win over the Lakers, while Denver fell to the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night, 124-122.
While many are likely going to back the Clips with all the motivation on the visiting team’s side, I keep coming back to Denver. All trends aren’t created equal, but the Nuggets have thrived in this spot since 2005, going 48-38-1 as a home underdog against a team that made the postseason the previous year.
The Nuggets are at home with a young roster that should only be getting better after establishing itself last postseason. Give me the undervalued home dog coming off a loss to close out the Christmas card.
Recap
New Orleans +4.5
Milwaukee -10, Team Total over 121.5
Nets/Celtics over 228.5
Mavericks +6
Nuggets +2.5
