As Hurricane Rafael continues to dump heavy rain on western Cuba, forecasters are in a bit of disagreement over the path the storm is going to take.
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Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday afternoon as a Category 3 hurricane, taking down the island's power grid with torrential rain and whipping winds. With additional 2 to 4 inches of rain expected today, parts of western Cuba will see up to a foot of rain by the time Rafael moves away from the island.
The hurricane is now a Category 2 storm and is about 215 miles west of Key West, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, moving northwest at 9 mph, the National Hurricane Center said at 10 a.m. ET.
The National Hurricane Center said Rafael is expected to weaken slightly as it moves slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
While the storm is anticipated to track westward over the next couple of days, forecasters have different predictions for what Rafael's next moves are. The National Hurricane Center said there's "above average uncertainty in the future track of Rafael."
"Most of the models -- including the [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts], [United Kingdom Meteorological Office], and regional
hurricane models -- show Rafael turning southwestward in response to a
narrow ridge building to its northwest. But, the [Global Forecast System] and Canadian models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper upper trough over the central United States," the agency said.
In any event, it appears that Rafael will remain in the Gulf of Mexico instead of approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast. The threat of landfall in the U.S. is slim to none.
Currently, there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, the National Hurricane Center says swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
"Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system," the center added.
This hurricane season has brought several high-power storms that have wreaked havoc on the southern United States. Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton are among the five hurricanes to hit the US this season, killing at least 300 people and causing upwards of $130 billion in economic losses.
While only four hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. in the final month of the hurricane season, the most recent happened two years ago when Hurricane Nicole hit Florida.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
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