SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS RADIO) – On top of climate change, a worsening statewide drought and increasingly frequent wildfires, grape growers in Northern California's Wine Country could face another existential threat in the coming years without mitigation measures: an invasive inch-long insect known as the spotted lanternfly.
North Carolina State University researchers outlined the danger in a study published Wednesday in journal Communications Biology, predicting that the spotted lanternfly has a higher than 50% chance of establishing itself in California’s grape-producing counties by 2033 if preventative measures aren’t taken. The following year, the species is expected to spread.
That includes Napa and Sonoma counties in the Bay Area, which helps the state account for 82% of the $6.5 billion worth of grape production in the U.S. The spotted lanternfly, a species native to Asia that has spread to at least 11 other states since reaching Pennsylvania in 2014, can damage or destroy commercial crops like grapes and almonds – production of which is already endangered due to climate change – by eating their sap or leaving behind honeydew, a residue that helps mold grow.
"This is a big concern for grape growers; it could lead to billions of dollars of losses in the agricultural sector," Chris Jones, a North Carolina State researcher and the study’s lead author, said in a university news release. "With this study, we have a baseline that we can use to evaluate the effect of different management strategies."
Spotted lanternflies can lay eggs on vehicles, railroad cars, shipping material and stone, according to the study, and the authors said close proximity to railroad cars provides an elevated risk of the species reaching a given area. So, too, does the presence of the tree of heaven, the spotted lanternfly's invasive host tree.
"We assumed that the spotted lanternfly needs tree of heaven to complete its life cycle," Jones said. "The presence of tree of heaven, along with rail networks, seem to be two factors that could drive spread to California. The temperature there is relatively suitable across the state."
Jones told the university that he's hopeful the research will allow federal, state and local officials to prepare for the spotted lanternfly's arrival. The study highlighted the likely effect in the absence of mitigation, giving pest managers a baseline comparison for their own strategies.
Any additional time the study buys could be vital to growers, he said.
"It's hard to say in advance exactly what the spotted lanternfly's impact will be on the grape-producing regions of the West Coast, since we only have data from cold-producing regions," Jones said. "In Pennsylvania, we've seen vineyard losses from the double whammy of cold and from spotted lanternflies feeding on the vines. But we do know producers can also experience losses because of the mold growth alone."
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