PITTSBURGH (93.7 The Fan) – The Athletic's Keith Law started covering baseball prospects when Bill Clinton was President. He tells 93.7 The Fan, Louisville catcher Henry Davis is the best player available as the Pirates have the number one overall pick Sunday night in the 2021 MLB Draft.
Davis (6'2", 210 pounds) hit .370 this year, his junior season at Louisville, with 15 home runs, 48 RBI with 10 steals, a 1.145 OPS and a .482 on-base percentage (31 walks to 24 strikeouts). The right-handed hitter also threw out 34% of base stealers in college.
"I'm in a camp that believes he will catch long-term," Law told the PM Team on 93.7 The Fan. "I will concede there are some scouts that don't think so. We all agree he's got a tremendous arm. I think his hands and his footwork are certainly good enough now and it will get better in pro ball."
"He can hit. He has superb hand-eye coordination. His pitch recognition is excellent. He has quite a bit of power. He's a real student of the game."
There is an immediate need for catchers in the Pirates organization. Their only true prospect is Endy Rodriguez in Low A Bradenton. Rodriguez has already played different positions and may not be a catcher in the future. Davis likely could be on a fast track to help.
The Bucs also need help in their rotation. Law said of the Vanderbilt teammates and top two picks in most mock drafts before the season started, Jack Leiter is a better option than Kumar Rocker. Law said he worried about Rocker's ability to deal with adversity saying 'he doesn't pitch as well as someone with his stuff and size should be pitching'.
Leiter though gave up a number of home runs and doesn't possess the elite size and power that is popular in baseball. Plus there are the talks that Leiter might not sign with a struggling franchise like the Pirates.
"I've been doing this a long time," Law said. "The guys who are the consensus number one picks a year or two out from a draft almost never end up being the number one picks."
"They are famous. Kumar Rocker threw a no-hitter in the College World Series. Jack Leiter's dad pitched in the majors. That doesn't always pan out. Both of those guys have had little hick-ups."
If the Pirates are looking for the players who have the highest ceilings, Law says to go with high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar or Marcelo Mayer. Law believes Lawlar has more 'pure ceiling', but Mayer is a better athlete with a better swing. Plus Mayer played against better high school competition in California.
Law has known Pirates general manager Ben Cherington for a long time and believes they could get a shortstop and benefit themselves down the road.
"You could approach Mayer and Lawler and say we like both of you guys," Law said. "Whichever one of your guys will take this number. You put a dollar figure on the table that saves a half a million or million off slot, whichever one of you guys takes that. You are the first pick. Perfectly valid strategy."
He also believes it's a personal preference between the two. There isn't a drop off or you aren't settling for a lessor Bryan Bullington or Daniel Moskos-type for sign-ability. As the Pirates did in the past.
Then you could take that savings and use it on the next pick to sweeten the pot and help convince a high school player, likely a pitcher, to give up his great college offer. Or spread that out over the next few rounds for the same thought process.
"I expect them to at the very least come under slot for that first pick to save a million or so, so they can go over with their next pick," Law said. "That first pick in the second round is still in the top 40 overall. You could still get a really high, high school pitcher. The best players available at that pick are usually high school pitchers because a lot of teams just don't want to take high school pitching in the first round. Especially up top."
It's not the Pirates being cheap, but in a year where there isn't a clear-cut first overall pick. Law says the Bucs could get a top talent available and still help improve the quality of the next few selections.
