I've been one of those of who thought all along this offseason, 'Pssh…yeah, of course Ben Roethlisberger is going to come back. It doesn't matter what the cap situation is. The Steelers love him, have shown undying loyalty to him throughout his career and he's not going to want to go out like that.
Losing to that team and having the defeated, slumped over-with-his-head-down picture of him on the bench postgame be the last image of his career as the quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers? No way.'
But the comments made by Art Rooney II and GM Kevin Colbert over the past few weeks have made me pause in that line of thinking. The lack of commitment and certainty with Ben lead me to believe that they are actually going to play some hardball and won't jump through as many hoops to make it work.
This brings about a giant fear for me as a Steelers consumer and a Steelers fan.
Let's say they can't work it out with Ben. Even the master cap manipulators are outmatched and it's the unceremonious end of the #7 reign in Pittsburgh. Then what?
I think it's pretty clear what the next step is, given this quote from Kevin Colbert last week: "It was encouraging to see him in that Cleveland game."
He's talking about Mason Rudolph. There's little doubt in my mind that if it's not Ben, it's Rudolph as the starting quarterback in 2021. The Steelers will give their 3rd round pick, the one they claimed they had a 1st round grade on, his shot.
Here's the thing with Mason Rudolph for me…I see a cement ceiling and a cement floor.
Is he good enough to be a starting QB in the league? I think so. Is he capable of winning some games for you as that starter? Sure. But can he be the one to win you a Super Bowl? I don't see it.
That's where things slam into that cement ceiling. I think there's a cap on what Rudolph can do and he will become in the league. When I see Rudolph I see a lot of Andy Dalton. Or Kirk Cousins. That middle tier of NFL QB's.
As much as I believe there's a ceiling, there's also that floor. If Mason Rudolph is the starting quarterback for the Steelers in 2021, he's not going 3-13 or 4-12. I think that's what some fans are hoping for. That way, the Steelers can set themselves up with a high draft pick to go get their franchise QB in next year's draft. But with Mike Tomlin at the helm, having never had a losing season, and what we saw in 2019 when a combination of a wildly inconsistent Rudolph and Duck Hodges somehow won 8 games, the bottom won't drop out in 2021.
I can't see this upcoming season being the one time under Tomlin where the Steelers totally fall apart.
That goes back to my fear.
The fear is that Mason Rudolph starts shows improvement. He shows flashes of brilliance, even. He leads the Steelers to an 11-6, 10-7, 9-8 record or whatever it takes to get the Steelers into the playoffs as a Wild Card team (those records are weird with a 17-game regular season, aren't they?). After another quick playoff exit, Steelers brass decides they like what they see in him. So much so that in the offseason, when Rudolph's rookie contract expires, they feel confident enough to give him a 4-5 year contract extension and hitch their wagon to him as the starting quarterback for years to come because…he made the playoffs, right? He's only going to get better!
My fear is they get duped into committing long-term to a quarterback that may be just good enough to compete, with weapons to work with on offense and a really solid defense backing him…but never good enough to win it all. The prime years of Cam Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, TJ Watt, Devin Bush all being on the same unit…ultimately wasted.
I think we've seen this before in NFL history, too. A team that's very close to us in Pittsburgh. It's much like what the Baltimore Ravens did for 11 seasons with Joe Flacco. Baltimore had a fantastic defense, full of young playmakers, one of the most feared units in the league during Flacco's time.
But the Pitt transfer was always right on that edge. A starting quarterback with a big arm and a great deep ball that did enough to win you some games, but ultimately didn't win maybe as much as he should have with such a great defense on the other side.
I know what you're thinking: 'Uhh…did you forget that he WON a Super Bowl?!?' No, of course I didn't. I remember it well. I could barely watch it considering it was the battle of the Harbaugh brothers that can be tough to stomach sometimes.
It took an incredible string of performances from Flacco, like historically good, one that was frankly uncharacteristic of his career, to win them that Super Bowl. He threw for 1,140 yards and 11 touchdowns without a single interception. That's one of the best postseasons in NFL history. Should we bank on Mason Rudolph someday doing that to get the Steelers over the hump?
I fear the Steelers would become reminiscent of the Pirates under Neal Huntington post-2015 with Mason Rudolph as the quarterback. Just play meaningful games in September, right? That was the goal? In this case, be in it all season until you meet Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or even the Browns or Ravens in the playoffs to end your season. The AFC may be as deep and as strong as it has even been, with young QB's and teams on the rise everywhere you look.
If it were me, the minute I know I can't reach a deal to bring Ben Roethlisberger back in 2021, I'm shifting all of my focus toward taking my next franchise quarterback in this year's draft. I'm considering how I'm going to possibly trade up to get my guy, whoever that may be. I'm not taking my chances on waiting until next season to do it, either.
Right now, it looks like Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma will be the top quarterback in the class. Unless the next Joe Burrow comes out of nowhere, I'll go after the deeper class of 2021.
But it's not me in charge, of course (and it's better that way in the long run, I'm sure). It's the Steelers. And the Steelers will give their man Mason his shot.
And hey, maybe I'm wrong about him. I hope we can pull this piece out years from now and laugh at my stupidity later when Rudolph is leading them to championships.
But I fear that a starting gig in 2021 that features a competent Rudolph will result in a long-term deal and possibly four or five more years of prolonged disappointment and missed opportunity on an otherwise very talented team.
