2021 NFC West Preview: Key storylines, X-factors and more

Biggest storyline heading into season?

Are all the key figures on the same page? Somewhat unexpectedly, Russell Wilson was the subject of offseason trade rumors, with reports indicating he's been less than happy with the team's overall direction, particularly offensive playcalling and personnel. Former OC Brian Schottenheimer's exit in favor of Shane Waldron, previously of the Rams, would seem to herald a new day. Pete Carroll has always been a "ground-and-pound" kind of head coach, but the run game was a shadow of its former self last season; instead the Seahawks thrived early when they "let Russ cook." Wilson was a strong MVP candidate amid the team's 5-0 start in 2020, but it all fizzled with a 7-4 finish and ugly loss to the Rams in the playoffs.

 
Who/what will be the X-factor?

The vaunted Legion of Boom defense is a thing of the past. The unit looks to be especially vulnerable at cornerback, where 2020 starters Shaquil Griffin and Quinton Dunbar have been replaced by DJ Reed and Tre Flowers. The defensive backfield is buttressed by two good safeties in Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, but in the pass-happy NFL, their presence may not be enough. As mentioned earlier, there's no more Beast Mode to feed the ball in the second half, and no Kam Chancellor to swoop in with a stick or a pick in a tight spot. Reed and Flowers will have to outplay their track records in order for the Seahawks to contend for that elusive second Super Bowl title under the winning combo of Carroll and Wilson.

 
The Seahawks will make the playoffs if… Russ is permitted to cook. That is, from where we sit, the Seahawks look to be a fairly one-dimensional team anymore. Wilson is one of the best in the business, as are his wide-receiver tandem of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Last season, this dynamic passing attack was enough to propel the team to 12 wins, though they peaked at the wrong time. With a couple improvements at the margins -- the addition of new right guard Gabe Jackson should help stabilize a leaky offensive line -- they could be in a similar position, and hopefully trending toward philosophical alignment as the season wears on.

 
The Seahawks will miss the playoffs if… The air hasn't been cleared. The Carroll-Wilson core would seem to be at something of a crossroads in 2021, with Wilson apparently feeling restless and the team having stalled out as a perennial regular-season powerhouse and postseason mediocrity since squandering a golden opportunity to win consecutive Lombardi trophies. Perhaps they never got over the gut punch of Super Bowl XLIX, and the fateful galaxy-brain play call for which it is remembered. The ghosts of that loss are yet to be exorcised, partly because of the natural attrition winning teams see as their championship cores age, decline, get injured, and are signed away by other teams. But the coach and his quarterback have never seemed to fully recover, either. In any event, this sort of crucible can bring teams together -- or see them fall apart. In the tough NFC West, any crack in the foundation could spell elimination from postseason contention. No doubt, the future of the Seahawks will be a situation to watch in the NFL this season.

Last year the Buccaneers, led by age-defying football sorcerer Tom Brady, became the first team in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in their home stadium. Can the Rams, hosts of Super Bowl LVI in Inglewood, become the second? Vegas isn’t counting on it—six teams have better odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy (Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Green Bay, Baltimore and San Francisco). But even if they’re not betting favorites, the Rams, armed with the most feared defender in football (reigning DPOY Aaron Donald), a savant head coach (spiky-haired prodigy Sean McVay) and a cannon-armed quarterback with something to prove (Matthew Stafford), are a team built to win now.

Biggest storyline heading into season?

Will the Rams, a playoff team three of the past four years, take the next step with newcomer Matthew Stafford under center? Moved this offseason in a blockbuster trade that netted Detroit Jared Goff and three draft picks including a pair of first-rounders, Stafford inherits easily the most talented supporting cast of his career with no shortage of receiving weapons (Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson, Tutu Atwell and tight end Tyler Higbee) and a coach in Sean McVay with the creativity and smarts to bring out his full potential. It’s the chance of a lifetime for Stafford, a decorated veteran and former first overall pick who had the misfortune of spending his first 12 seasons playing for one of the most dysfunctional organizations in all of sports. An unquestioned alpha eager to cement his status as an all-time great (his 45,109 career passing yards are the 16th-most in NFL history), Stafford makes the Rams a legitimate title threat.

Who will be the X-factor?

Besides the obvious answers—Stafford and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald—the Rams will have plenty riding on third-year running back Darrell Henderson. The favorite to replace injured workhorse Cam Akers (torn Achilles), Henderson was successful in a complementary role last season, contributing 783 yards (624 rushing, 159 receiving) and six touchdowns on 155 touches (10.3 per game). A college standout at the University of Memphis (where he rose to prominence as a unanimous All-American in 2018), Henderson is set up for a breakout year. But if he can’t deliver, former Patriots first-round pick Sony Michel will be ready to pounce.

The Rams will make the playoffs if … Stafford stays healthy and last year’s league-best defense continues to play at an elite level despite the loss of D coordinator Brandon Staley, who was hired as Chargers head coach this offseason. If Henderson picks up where Akers left off and slot vacuum Cooper Kupp returns to his dominant 2019 form (94-1,164-10 on 134 targets), Los Angeles could push the Bucs and Packers for conference supremacy in a tooth-and-nail NFC.

The Rams will miss the playoffs if … Stafford begins to show his age, the running game stagnates in Akers’ absence, the defense regresses under Raheem Morris and the NFC West bares its fangs with the Niners, Seahawks and Cardinals proving worthy adversaries in football’s deepest division.

Biggest storyline heading into season?

In San Francisco, there's plenty of storylines, but none bigger than what's going on at the moment with the quarterback position between Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, we all know the 49ers traded heaven and earth to move up in the NFL Draft to snag Trey Lance out of North Dakota State while making Lindsay Lohan proud with the way they flirted with quarterbacks seeking an upgrade from Jimmy G.

Lance is still raw and needs more reps after playing one full season at North Dakota State. However, the second Garoppolo slips up, the fan base will be yelling for Shanahan to unleash the hotshot rookie, making this season more compelling in San Francisco. This story won’t be getting stale anytime soon.

Who/what will be the X-factor?

Two words: Nick Bosa. The defensive rookie of the year in 2019, his presence was missed in a lost 2020 for the 49ers. However, his ability to play the run and his relentless as a pass rusher will make life easier for the entire defense. The third-year pro was lights out as a rookie and had San Francisco held on in Super Bowl 54 against Kansas City; he had a great chance to walk out of Miami a Super Bowl MVP.

When Bosa is right, he's a top-20 player in all of football. He's a monster. If he's right, the Niners will be soaring back into the postseason.

49ers will make the playoffs if… They stay healthy. This roster is loaded. Kittle is back to go along with an underrated stable of running back, as well as an improved offensive line. The defensive line runs 10-deep, and Fred Warner Jr is as good as there is in the game at middle linebacker.

Sure, the secondary is the one area that causes many to scratch their head and Rober Saleh's replacement at defensive coordinator, former all-pro, DeMeco Ryans. But, if this roster remains intact, expect this team to be a factor in January.

49ers  will miss the playoffs if…anything happens to this offensive line. Mike McGlinchey's question marks after a putrid 2020 and whether Alex Mack is a little long in the tooth at the center position. The offensive line is the most overlooked position group in football, but for the 49ers, it could derail the season, especially with Garoppolo and a rookie in Lance playing QB. The offensive line, anchored by Trent Williams, must play at a high level to help spark this offense.

Biggest storyline heading into season?
How productive their new veteran acquisitions will be. Each of the big three of J.J. Watt, A.J. Green and Rodney Hudson are over 32 years old, but they are also proven and established stars with years and years of production. All three of them played in all 16 games in the 2020 regular season, which is definitely a good sign, and having them healthy and on the field is of the utmost importance after making them the focal points of the offseason.

Who will be the X-factor?
Kyler Murray. It's kind of a boring answer, but it's an obvious one. If Murray performs at the high level that's expected of him — and stays on the field — there isn't really a good reason why the Cardinals should be excluded from the playoffs for the sixth year in a row. He got better from Year 1 to Year 2, and if he can improve once again (and perhaps cut down on the 16 turnovers), there may be a new team atop the NFC West.
The cornerback group is less of an X-factor and more an area of concern, especially after Malcolm Butler abruptly retired. That will be a unit that likely takes a beating by some of the better offensive opponents Arizona faces.

The Cardinals will make the playoffs if...
Kyler Murray stays healthy and takes another leap. The cornerback situation makes it so that the Cardinals might be susceptible to the shootout against the top quarterbacks in the league, and Murray's ability to stand toe-to-toe and fire right back will be key.

The Cardinals will miss the playoffs if...
Aside from the obvious, like if Murray gets hurt, the Cardinals might not make the playoffs just because the NFC West has potential to be a really strong division again. The Rams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders with Matthew Stafford at the helm and with a terrifying defense on the other side of the ball. The 49ers are also a threat so long as the quarterback situation plays out the right way. When Russell Wilson's Seahawks are arguably the worst team in the division, you know there's a lot of competition there.