(SportsRadio 610) - The Texans take an NFL-worst 1-12-1 record, including a nine-game losing streak, to Tennessee for their Christmas Eve game against the Titans.
As coach Lovie Smith pointed out this week, the Texans would love to win their last three games against the Titans, Jaguars and Colts and close with a winning record in the AFC South.
They’re coming off impressive performances in losses to Dallas (27-23) and Kansas City (30-24 in overtime). The low temperature in Nashville on Friday night is supposed to be in single digits. Kickoff at noon Saturday is predicted to be in the teens with a high of 23.
Here are some weekly observations on the Texans and their next game against Tennessee.
TITANS DESPERATE TO SWEEP TEXANS
The Texans haven’t won since Oct. 9 when they defeated Jacksonville. The Titans haven’t won since Nov. 17 when they beat the Packers. Tennessee’s four-game losing streak dropped its record to 7-7 and left it one game ahead of the surging Jaguars.
The Texans can still play a role in who wins the AFC South. After visiting the Titans, they host the Jaguars. They have a nine-game winning streak over Jacksonville that dates back to 2017 – the last season in which the Jaguars reached the playoffs.
The Titans host the Texans and Cowboys and close at Jacksonville. The Jaguars own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Titans by virtue of their 36-22 victory two weeks ago. The biggest difference in the two teams is Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill has an ankle injury while Trevor Lawrence has thrown 14 touchdown passes and one interception during the Jaguars’ 4-2 record over their last six games.
TEXANS COULD FACE WILLIS FOR SECOND TIME
The Texans aren’t the only AFC South team with injury issues. Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill was carted off the field in Sunday’s 17-14 loss at the Chargers. He has been unable to practice this week. Rookie Malik Willis, the third-round pick, could get his second start against the Texans.
In the Titans’ 17-10 victory at NRG Stadium, where they physically dominated the Texans, Willis made his first start. He completed 6-of-10 for 55 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. He was sacked three times and ran five times for 12 yards. Willis has played in six games. He made one other start – a 20-17 loss at Kansas City, where he connected on 5-of-16 for 80 yards without a touchdown or interception. He ran eight times for 40 yards against the Chiefs.
Without a barrage of turnovers, Saturday’s game could be low scoring and boring.
TITANS DON’T NEED TO THROW WITH HENRY
The Texans remain last in the NFL against the run, surrendering 167.5 yards a game rushing. In Sunday’s overtime loss to the Chiefs, they gave up 189 yards on 33 carries, a 5.7-yard average, and two touchdowns. Now here comes Derrick Henry, the league’s second-leading rusher with 1,303 yards (4.4 average) and 12 touchdowns. The Raiders’ Josh Jacobs, who’s in the last year of his contract, leads with 1,495 yards, including a 5.1 average and 11 touchdowns.
As Texans’ fans know, Henry has an extraordinary streak going – four consecutive games with at least 200 yards rushing in this AFC South rivalry – all Tennessee victories. Henry didn’t play against the Texans in 2021 because of an injury.
Henry’s streak began in the second game of the 2019 season when he carried 32 times for 211 yards (6.6 average) and scored three touchdowns in Tennessee’s 35-14 victory. In 2020, Deshaun Watson’s last season, the Texans and Titans played two exciting games. Henry had 22 carries for 212 yards (9.6) and two touchdowns in a 42-36 Tennessee victory. In the second game, which the Titans won 41-38, he ran 34 times for 250 yards (7.4) and two touchdowns.
In the Titans’ 17-10 victory this season, Henry carried 32 times for 219 yards (6.8) and two touchdowns. If all goes according to the Titans’ plan, Henry will produce a fifth consecutive 200-yard performance against the Texans.
TEXANS CLOSE THE BOOK ON PIERCE
Running back Dameon Pierce and safety Jalen Pitre are the Texans’ best rookies this season. Because of his ankle injury suffered in the 27-23 loss at Dallas, the Texans wisely decided to shut down Pierce for the season. He finished with 220 carries, 939 yards, a 4.3 average per carry and four touchdowns.
The ankle injury was a blessing for Pierce and the offense. The Texans are the worst team in the NFL. They’re going nowhere other than getting the first overall pick in the draft. The injury saves Pierce a lot of wear and tear, and he should have a healthy offseason to prepare for 2023.
At one point, Pierce was on a pace to break Steve Slaton’s rookie rushing record of 1,282 yards in 2008. Back-to-back games against Washington and Miami in which he carried 15 times for 16 yards put him on pace for 1,228. Pierce had two 100-yard games – 14 carries for 131 yards against the Chargers and 27 for 139 against the Eagles. He had three games in which he rushed for at least 90 yards.
When Pierce was placed on injured reserve last week, the Texans were 28th in rushing with 89.9 yards a game. General manager Nick Caserio needs to find another productive running back in the offseason who can play behind Pierce and help the Texans improve their average yards per game – 29th this week with 90.2 a game.
By the way, when Pierce went on injured reserve, he was tied for seventh in yards (939), fifth in attempts (220), ninth in yards per game (72.2), fourth in yards after contact (506), first in broken tackles (35), second in broken tackle percentage (14.0) and third in elusive rating (98.1).
FREEMAN SHOULD START AGAINST TITANS
It was clear to anyone who watched the Texans’ overtime loss to the Chiefs that Royce Freeman was the most effective running back. After spending the season on the practice squad and patiently waiting for an opportunity, Freeman came off the bench for 11 carries, 56 yards and a 4.6-yard average. If he’s in the lineup at Tennessee, it’ll be Freeman’s first start since his rookie year at Denver in 2018.
Freeman, 26, rushed for 526 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie and 496 yards and three touchdowns in 2019 when he also caught 43 passes. He spent last season on the Panthers’ and Texans’ practice squads. He had 35 carries for 92 yards (4.6) in limited playing time with the Texans.
The Tennessee game is going to be played in extremely cold weather. Wind is a possibility. The running game will be important. The Texans ran 28 times for 94 yards against the Chiefs, including five for 21 by quarterback Davis Mills.
Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton needs to give Freeman, 6-0, 238, his first start since his rookie season to see what he can do before bringing in Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday and Thursday on Texans Radio. He write three times a week and does three Houtopia Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com. He also can be read four times a week on GallerySports.com.