On Sunday at Highmark Stadium, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will start a road postseason game for the first time in his seven-year NFL career. He’ll also be an underdog for just the 10th time in 112 regular-season and postseason starts.
The Chiefs were an underdog in Mahomes’ first career start, a Week 17 game against the Denver Broncos on Dec. 31, 2017. They were also an underdog for his second and third career starts — in Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2018 season — and two more times later in the 2018 regular season, making Mahomes a dog five times in his first 12 career starts.
Since then, the two-time Super Bowl MVP has been an underdog just five times in his last 99 starts. And only one opponent has covered as a favorite in Mahomes’ 10 underdog starts: the Buffalo Bills.
Taron Johnson’s interception sealed the Bills’ win over the Chiefs in Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season. With the 24-20 win, Buffalo covered as a 2.5-point road favorite, dropping Mahomes to 7-1-1 against spread as a regular-season underdog. He’s 8-1-1 overall, most recently covering against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XLVII.
As of Tuesday, the NFL odds at BetMGM had the Bills are a 2.5-point favorite against the Chiefs as the teams meet again Sunday in the NFL divisional round . The Bills are 3-3 ATS overall against Mahomes, including a Week 14 cover in their 20-17 win. In all postseason games as a favorite since 2017, they’re 4-6.
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