After months of dealing with higher prices at the pump, it’s probably not too big of a shock for Americans that holiday airfares are expected to be more expensive this year.
While AAA showed that national average gas prices were finally below $4 per gallon, continued conflict between the U.S. and Iran means that jet fuel is more expensive than last year. That means that flights are likely more expensive too. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, gasoline increased 34.2% from September 2025 to this September.
“Months of elevated jet fuel costs due to the conflict in Iran have contributed to Thanksgiving and Christmas airfares reaching 10-year highs,” said marketing agency Hopper in its recent “2026 Holiday Travel Index” report.
According to Hopper, round-trip domestic airfare for Thanksgiving is averaging $402, up 31% from last year. It said airfare to all destinations has increased, including popular spots like New York, N.Y., and Florida as well as international destinations.
After the U.S. joined Israel to attack Iran in February, Iran eventually blocked the Strait of Hormuz, an important global transportation route for oil. Fuel prices have been up not only in the U.S., but around the world.
“Carriers have had to find ways to boost revenue to deal with rising energy costs since the Iran War began to disrupt global crude oil flows and production in the Middle East,” said the Wall Street Journal in a report from last month. “Executives have said so far, they have been able to push fares higher without damaging demand, and they don’t expect the prices to keep holiday travelers away.”
Indeed, travelers came out over the Memorial Day holiday earlier this year, even though gas prices were high.
The WSJ also explained that jet fuel is one of the biggest expenses for carriers that now expect to pay tens of billions of dollars more for it than last year. Citing data from Argus, it said that the average monthly spot price of jet fuel is up 91% since February.
Since the Sunday after Thanksgiving is one of the most popular travel days of the season, it is also one of the most expensive. Sunday, Nov. 29 airfares are averaging $604 for a roundtrip ticket, but Hopper recommends that travelers wait until Monday or Tuesday to save around $350 on tickets or to take an earlier flight out on Black Friday for $420.
Departing on the Monday before Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving Day is also cheaper than departing on the Wednesday before the holiday, said Hopper.
The agency noted that Christmas airfare is typically pricier than Thanksgiving. This year, prices are at $452, up 23% from last year. Prices for both Thanksgiving and Christmas air travel are higher than they’ve been in a decade.
“The most expensive days to leave for a Christmas trip will be the weekend ahead of Christmas, 12/18 - 12/20, when prices are already averaging just below $500 per ticket,” Hopper warned. “The best dates to leave on a Christmas trip are Monday or Tuesday before the holiday, when prices are averaging around $440 per ticket.”
Prices on Sunday, Dec. 27 are also expected to be 20% higher than “early in the week returns” according to Hopper. Many travelers have started booking their holiday flights early, Hopper said – earlier than in past years. They have also been using artificial intelligence tools more than in previous years.
“Earlier this year, a record 33% of adults said they were already using generative AI platforms to research upcoming travel, in line with the percentage of travelers using general search engines to plan (35%),” said Hopper.
It also offered some tips to save money on holiday travel this year. These include: booking the first flight of the day (before (9 a.m.); paying more to fly direct, thus avoiding delays and cancellations; building a buffer day into travel; using a “disruption assistance” service to avoid delays; being flexible about booking and signing up for alerts about flights, weather and other aspects related to travel plans.
While budget-conscious flyers won’t be able to fly Spirit this year, Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist said the collapse of Spirit “isn’t a big factor in these price increases,” per the WSJ.
As for whether gas prices could come down further, President Donald Trump said this week in a Truth Social post that the U.S. and Iran don’t need a deal, sparking concerns about continued conflict and continued oil market volatility. However, Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy pointed out some positive signs for travel prices, such as the fact that jet fuel does tend to get cheaper in the winter.
