Polls spell out bad news for GOP even if Iran War ends

In a little over three weeks, Americans will be heading to voting booths to cast their ballots in the midterm elections. Recent polling from POLITICO shows that even a big development – like President Donald Trump managing to end the war in Iran – will help Republicans win seats.

Already, the GOP was at an immediate disadvantage heading into the midterms. Per the Brookings Institution, the party in power “almost always loses ground,” during these elections. For example, while Democrats were able to retain control of the Senate in 2022, they lost seats in the House of Representatives.

However, more than just history is going against Republicans this year. Affordability has emerged as a major issue, and Audacy recently covered polling that showed just 17% of people approve of how Trump, the leader of the GOP, is handling the economy.

POLITICO’s polling found that “most Americans see no clear way for the party to regain the advantage as the election reaches its final weeks,” with even Republicans admitting skepticism, according to the outlet. It said that “majorities of voters say they would not be more likely to vote Republican even if Trump were to pull off a major political feat before November – like announcing the Iran war was over, bringing the price of gasoline down by $1 or creating 100,000 new jobs.

Trump announced that the U.S. had joined Israel to attack Iran in February. Since then, Americans have been dealing with higher gas prices in large part due to Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, an important transportation route for oil. Since around May, national average gas prices have usually been higher than $4 per gallon, around $1 more per gallon compared to 2025 prices, according to AAA.

Harris/Guardian poll results reported Thursday also found that “even some Republicans are increasingly disenchanted with Donald Trump’s economy.” A majority of respondents to that poll were pessimistic about the U.S. economy, with 61% who believed the country was already in a recession though it technically is not.

“Even within the Republican ranks, optimism has waned,” The Guardian noted. “In February 2025, just a few weeks after Trump was inaugurated, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks against Iran, that optimism was up to 49%. In the latest poll, just 28% of Republicans said the economy was getting better.”

Reminders of economic pressure are up in glowing lights everywhere. Every time Americans pass a gas station they can see how much filling up a tank is draining their wallets.

“Voters say the high prices they are seeing at gas stations and grocery stores will be a key factor when they cast their votes in November, The Guardian added. “Two-thirds of those polled said that gas prices and grocery prices are their most important issues heading into the election, followed by living expenses, healthcare costs and foreign affairs.”

Nearly half (46%) of rural Americans – a demographic that often swings Republican, according to the Pew Research Center – blame the U.S. government for higher gas prices, per the Harris/Guardian poll. That’s considerably higher than the 28% of Republicans who said the same.

According to predictions gathered by 270 to Win as of Saturday, Democrats could take both the House and the Senate in the upcoming elections.