While experts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent move to lower the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is merely for show, it does increase the risk of nuclear war.
Russia first proposed its new nuclear weapons doctrine in September. It states that the country can now launch nuclear weapons in response to an attack on its territory by a non-nuclear armed state that is backed by a nuclear one.
Of course, that’s directly related to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and support the U.S. is providing Ukraine to defend itself. This month – following the arrival of North Korean troops on the frontlines of the invasion – President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use the long-range American weapons known as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes inside Russia.
While Ukraine isn’t a nuclear power, the U.S. is. It has the second highest number of nuclear weapons, in the world. Russia has the most. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the U.S. has an estimated 5,044 nuclear weapons and Russia has an estimated 5,580. China has the next highest amount at 500.
“A single nuclear weapon can destroy a city and kill most of its people,” said the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). “Several nuclear explosions over modern cities would kill tens of millions of people. Casualties from a major nuclear war between the US and Russia would reach hundreds of millions.”
Putin formally lowered Russia’s nuclear weapon use threshold Tuesday, per the Associated Press. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that, by Tuesday, Ukraine had fired six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles at a military facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, the outlet added.
Despite the renewed threat of nuclear warfare from Russia, NBC News reported that “world leaders and analysts alike expressed doubts that the change amounted to much more than a new and more intense effort to deter the West.” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the outlet there is no indication Moscow is intent on using nuclear weapons.
“He has rattled his nuclear saber quite a bit and this is dangerous behavior,” said Austin of Putin.
Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, also believes Putin’s move doesn’t signal the start of nuclear war anytime soon.
“I don’t think the Russians are going to use nuclear weapons, even though we saw over the last few days a lowering of the threshold on the use of nuclear weapons,” he said.
Council on Foreign Relations Fellow for Europe Liana Fix also noted that there has been a calm reaction to Putin’s announcement from France and the U.K., countries closer to Russia’s nuclear arsenal than the U.S. She said continued hinting at nuclear war “creates a real dilemma for Russia because its credibility when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons is significantly damaged and has been damaged for the last two years, because Russia has argued again and again that it would do it, but again and again this has turned out a bluff.”
Putin’s announcement was also followed by China – a country that Russia has recently been strengthening ties with – pressing other nuclear powers to show restraint, Newsweek reported.
“Under the current situation, all relevant parties need to remain calm and restrained and jointly seek de-escalation and lower strategic risks through dialogue and consultation,” Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, told a regular press briefing in Beijing, according to the outlet.
News of Biden’s green light for Ukraine to use long range weapons and Russia’s nuclear doctrine change also came with news of mysterious internet cable failures in Europe. Those failures have been linked to Russia, per reports covered by Audacy.
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his new term in the White House, support for Ukraine from the U.S. is poised to change. He has long criticized Biden’s approach to the handling the invasion. Kupchan said that Biden’s recent moves strengthen Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table with Russia, where he thinks the war will ultimately end. As the world waits for that ending, threats of escalating war still loom.
On Thursday, Russia reportedly launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, according to ICAN. While some experts doubt whether the missile was fired, ICAN said the reports demonstrate “the risk of escalation in a nuclear-armed world,” and it noted that “past false alarms have nearly started nuclear wars.”